Did Trump suddenly "back down"? The US-Iran nuclear deal might be rapidly revived, and the oil bears are completely excited!

The most surreal thing in the global markets these days isn't Bitcoin skyrocketing, nor AI continuing to make promises, but Trump suddenly starting to "talk peace."
That's right, the man who once shouted "maximum pressure" has now publicly stated that the US-Iran negotiations are "progressing smoothly."
Even more outrageous is that the US attitude toward "Iran must export its enriched uranium" has softened. Previously, it was "you must move out," now it's "you can lock it in a drawer first."
When the capital markets hear this, they immediately go into a frenzy.
Because this means—the nuclear deal might really have a chance.
And what truly excites Wall Street isn't Iran itself, but the Strait of Hormuz.
Nearly 20% of global oil transportation passes through here. When tensions rise, oil prices immediately soar. Now, if relations ease, the market's first reaction is: crude oil might cool off.
So the first to break their defenses aren't diplomats, but crude oil bulls.
Many traders have recently started to lose sleep. Because one of the key reasons supporting oil prices was the Middle East risk premium. Once hopes for peace heat up, this bubble could be drained.
But here's the question: can an agreement really be reached before the end of May?
From a realistic perspective, it's very difficult. Because the real complexity lies in the details, including verification mechanisms, fund unfreezing, sanctions removal, and so on.
But the market never waits for the results.
What the market loves to speculate on is "it's about to happen."
So right now, everyone is betting not on a complete agreement, but on whether there will suddenly be a "phase statement."
As long as both sides hold a press conference and shake hands with a smile, the market can move up and down for three days first.
And why did Trump suddenly change his stance?
The answer is simple: oil prices.
The US is now most afraid of inflation rebounding, and high oil prices are the engine of inflation. If Trump can make the market believe that "the Middle East situation is easing," oil prices will naturally cool down.
In plain terms, this is both a diplomatic game and a financial game.
Many people are seemingly studying the nuclear deal, but in reality, they are all watching the oil K-line.
After all, Wall Street never cares about peace,
Only about how much peace is worth. #Polymarket每日热点