Is the Strait of Hormuz going to reopen for traffic? Global capital suddenly starts betting on a peace scenario!

Recently, a fascinating phenomenon has appeared in the financial world:
Gold begins to fluctuate, crude oil starts to tremble, and traders are frantically refreshing Trump’s speeches.
The only reason—U.S.-Iran relations suddenly ease.
Trump recently stated that U.S.-Iran negotiations are “progressing smoothly,” and hinted that the U.S. is willing to make moderate concessions on Iran’s uranium enrichment issue.
This instantly caused market sentiment to explode.
Because everyone smells a familiar scent:
The nuclear deal might be coming back.
And what’s truly important is the Strait of Hormuz.
It’s known as the “high-speed toll station” for global energy, with a large portion of the world’s oil shipments passing through here. Whenever Middle East tensions escalate in the past, markets would worry about strait risks, causing oil prices to soar.
But if relations ease, what does that mean?
It means the global crude oil supply pressure decreases.
So recently, the most awkward group appeared—the oil bulls.
Many just shouted “oil prices will hit $100,” but suddenly the market started trading “peace expectations.”
And Trump’s move is also seen by many as the “election mode activated.”
Because ordinary Americans may not understand uranium enrichment, but they definitely understand oil prices.
As long as gas station prices drop, voters’ moods will rise.
So Trump is actually fighting a “oil price defense war” right now.
But can an agreement really be signed before the end of the month?
Honestly, it’s difficult.
Because a nuclear deal isn’t like online shopping refunds, where a click confirms everything. It involves complex issues like international supervision, fund unfreezing, and sanctions exemptions.
But the financial markets don’t care about details at all.
The market’s best skill is to price in future expectations in advance.
So many funds are already positioning:
Shorting crude oil;
Watching gold;
Betting on a rebound of risk assets.
What everyone is betting on isn’t the official implementation of the deal,
But that the market believes it will happen.
That’s the true logic of capital. #Polymarket每日热点