Is the Iran nuclear deal really making a comeback? The market has already started "celebrating" in advance

The biggest change in the market recently is not AI, nor interest rate cuts, but Trump's words.
In the past, when he spoke, the market feared war.
Now, when he speaks, the market fears peace.
Because Trump suddenly stated that progress has been made in US-Iran negotiations, and the US has softened its stance on Iran's uranium enrichment issues.
This means both sides are shifting from a "mutual accusations" mode to a "bargaining" mode.
And the capital markets love this stage the most.
Because the expectation gap is the largest.
Many are now betting:
The risk in the Strait of Hormuz is decreasing;
Oil prices are pulling back;
Global inflation is easing.
Some even believe that future pressure on the Federal Reserve will lessen.
So recently, a strange phenomenon has appeared:
Crude oil prices are stagnant,
Gold can't rise high,
But the stock market is becoming more and more excited.
Because funds are starting to bet on "risk decreasing."
But the real question is:
Can they sign the deal before the end of the month?
Honestly, the probability of a full agreement is not high.
Because a nuclear deal is not a live-stream shopping event, nor is it just "click the link at 3-2-1" and done.
It involves a lot of technical details.
But what the market is betting on now is not the final document.
It's a political signal.
As long as both sides can release a joint statement saying they will "continue to push forward," the market could peak early.
That's also why many short-term funds have already started to position in advance.
Because there is a golden rule in financial markets:
Real profits often come from expectation gaps.
When news hits the trending searches,
Large funds may have already run away.
So what everyone is watching now is not just the Middle East situation.
It's Trump's next words.
After all, this man's words sometimes are more stimulating than an OPEC meeting. #Polymarket每日热点