Recently, I’ve been looking at forecasts for the RMB exchange rate trend and found that some things are still worth paying attention to. Looking back over the entire last year, the RMB’s performance against the US dollar really did show a turning point. Based on data from 2025, the USD to RMB rate has been swinging back and forth between 7.1 and 7.3, appreciating by 2.4% over the whole year. By the end of November, driven by easing US-China trade tensions and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, the USD to RMB rate even fell to below 7.08, with a low of 7.0765—its strongest level in nearly a year.

Looking back at the past few years, you can understand why things are so interesting right now. 2022 was a brutal year: the USD to RMB rate jumped from 6.35 straight to above 7.25, depreciating by 8%. The reasons behind it are quite simple—aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, a surge in the US dollar index, and significant pressure on the domestic economy. But in 2023 and 2024, things started to improve. Especially last year, although volatility was relatively high, the overall trend began to stabilize.

When it comes to forecasts of the RMB exchange rate trend, the views from major investment banks are quite interesting. Deutsche Bank believes the RMB is starting a new round of long-term appreciation, estimating that it could reach 7.0 by the end of this year, and further rise to 6.7 by the end of next year. Morgan Stanley is also fairly optimistic, predicting that the US dollar index may fall back to 89, which would put the USD to RMB exchange rate at around 7.05. A Goldman Sachs report has sparked even more discussion: they believe the RMB is undervalued by 15%, and that within the next 12 months it could rise to 7.0.

The question now is whether these predictions are really reliable. I think we need to look at a few aspects. First is the US dollar index. Last year, in the first five months, the dollar index fell 9%, creating the worst start in history. If the Federal Reserve continues to cut rates, the US dollar could keep depreciating, which is definitely a positive for the RMB. Second is US-China relations—there is indeed still uncertainty, but for now it looks like trade negotiations are moving forward. Third is the policy orientation of China’s central bank. Currently, it still appears to lean toward easing; this may create pressure on the RMB in the short term, but in the long run, if the economy stabilizes, the RMB can still benefit.

Honestly, the key to judging RMB exchange rate trend forecasts still comes down to these things. First is the central bank’s monetary policy. Rate cuts and reserve requirement cuts will certainly create depreciation pressure on the RMB, but if the economy stabilizes as a result, it remains a long-term positive. Second is economic data—GDP, PMI, CPI, and other figures are important. If China’s economy performs well, foreign capital will naturally flow in, and the RMB will strengthen. Third is the US dollar’s own trajectory, which is the most direct factor. Fourth is the official stance—the central bank’s guidance on the exchange rate is still quite clear.

From an investment perspective, if you believe in RMB appreciation, there are indeed quite a few ways to participate. You can open a foreign exchange account through a bank, or find a foreign exchange broker, or trade via futures exchanges. Many platforms now support two-way trading, which means there are opportunities to profit whether the currency moves up or down. However, it’s important to note that leveraged trading carries relatively high risks, so you need to set it up according to your own circumstances.

Overall, forecasts for the RMB exchange rate trend point to the possibility that a long-term appreciation cycle may be forming. Although there will still be fluctuations in the short term, if China’s economy continues to remain stable and the US dollar index stays weak, the probability of RMB appreciation is still quite high. But these kinds of matters require you to do your own homework—look at publicly available economic data and track the central bank’s policy signals—so you can make a more reliable judgment.