#Polymarket每日热点 Iran-U.S. Nuclear Deal: Can It Be Settled Before the End of May?

With only a few days left until the end of May, judging from the latest developments across all sides, there is a possibility that Iran and the U.S. could reach a framework-based interim agreement. However, it is almost impossible for a comprehensive nuclear deal to be concluded and implemented within such a short timeframe.

On the positive side: both sides have reached a principled consensus on the framework of a memorandum of understanding. Key arrangements include extending the ceasefire for 60 days, gradually opening the Strait of Hormuz in stages, and the U.S. unfreezing $12 billion in Iranian assets. U.S. officials say the framework agreement is “95% complete” and that they are negotiating the final wording. Trump himself also said that the talks are “going smoothly.” On the issue of enriched uranium, Trump’s latest remarks allow for “on-site destruction” rather than a requirement to transport the material away, which has been interpreted as a softening of the U.S. position.

The core disagreements are still unresolved: Iran has repeatedly emphasized that, at this stage, it will not discuss the details of the nuclear issue, and that nuclear talks will be handled in later negotiations. On the 24th, Trump also made it clear that he will not sign an agreement that paves the way for Iran to obtain nuclear weapons. There are also fundamental differences in how the two sides describe control of the Strait of Hormuz—while the U.S. claims it will be “open,” Iran stresses that the strait remains under its full authority. On May 25, Trump further instructed U.S. representatives that they “do not need to rush to reach an agreement.”

Overall assessment: by the end of the month, it is more likely that the two sides will reach a 60-day “memorandum of understanding” as a transitional arrangement to consolidate the ceasefire and enable the Strait of Hormuz to be opened. But the “nuclear agreement” itself—namely the substantive arrangements surrounding the disposition of enriched uranium and restrictions on nuclear capabilities—cannot be reached by the end of May. The public should not interpret the “agreement” Trump mentioned in an optimistic light as a resolution to the nuclear issue; the real hard fight is still ahead.