Before bed, I checked some on-chain data and saw someone using the "Smart Money Label" to track capital flows… To be honest, I’ve always been skeptical about address profiling. When clustering rules change, the same batch of addresses might be labeled as "institutions" today, and as "market makers/multisig/exchange hot wallets" tomorrow. You might think you understand it, but maybe you’re just replacing noise with a different color.

Recently, the calendar for staking unlocks and token unlocks has been repeatedly used to scare people. I also pay attention, but I care more about where the tokens go after unlocking: into exchanges, into lending, or just internal address changes. Labels can serve as clues, but they’re not definitive conclusions. Anyway, my current approach is: when I see blanket statements like "capital inflow = pump, outflow = crash," I pause for two seconds, check the original transfer paths, and then decide. Even if I’m wrong, it’s easier to correct.