Feature Article | April Investment Growth Turns Negative Again: How to Understand and Respond?

Caixin.com As China's economic transformation gradually advances, the previously high contribution rate of fixed asset investment to economic growth has shown a slowdown in recent years. In the first year of the "14th Five-Year Plan," a series of major projects have been launched one after another. Whether this can help stabilize investment and prevent further decline has attracted much market attention.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first quarter of 2026, the national fixed asset investment increased by 1.7% year-on-year, reversing the rare decline of the previous year. However, this trend was not sustained in April, and the investment growth rate turned negative again, with a cumulative decline of 1.6% from January to April.

This performance fell far short of market expectations. In a recent survey by Caixin Media of domestic and foreign institutions, 11 organizations provided forecasts for investment growth, with an average prediction of 1.7% and a range of 1.4% to 2.4%. Market institutions such as Guosheng Securities and Minsheng Bank analyzed that, against the backdrop of the accelerated year-on-year increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) in April, the slowdown in investment growth may be even weaker in actual performance.