Caixin Survey | April CPI Year-over-Year Growth May Slightly Slow Down; PPI Year-over-Year Increase May Expand

【Caixin】 Mainly affected by the widening decline in pork prices and the weak performance of fresh vegetable prices, the year-on-year performance of April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) may weaken; however, core CPI year-on-year may remain steady. After ending the previous 41-month streak of consecutive declines in March, the year-on-year increase in April’s Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial products is expected to expand, driven by factors such as a surge in international oil prices.

A recent survey by Caixin of 11 domestic and overseas institutions shows that all the economists interviewed expect April’s CPI year-on-year increase to remain unchanged from March or narrow, with an average forecast of 0.8%, which is 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous figure. The forecast range is 0.5% to 1.0%.

CICC’s macro team expects that April’s CPI year-on-year growth rate may stay steady at around 1.0%. On the food side, based on the 10-month inventory of productive sows and the 6-month inventory of piglets, April is a time when supply pressure is relatively high; after that, the pressure will ease. This round’s low point in pig prices may already have appeared in April. The average pork price across 22 provinces and cities first saw a seasonal decline in the first half of April, then stopped falling and rebounded in the middle of April, with the year-on-year decline in pork prices widening to 28.5%. Driven by warmer temperatures and ample market supply, the national average wholesale price of 28 types of vegetables fell by 10.3% month-on-month, and the year-on-year growth in fresh vegetable prices may slow. On the energy side, international oil prices remain at high-level sideways volatility. Domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices show a pattern of first being adjusted upward and then adjusted downward. For the full month, the average refined oil price increased by 9.2% month-on-month; combined with a low base effect, the year-on-year growth rate of domestic refined oil prices rose from 7.1% to 17.7%.