I recently looked at the trend of the USD/JPY exchange rate, and it is still fluctuating between 152 and 160. The yen has been continuously falling. The underlying reason is actually simple: the interest rate gap between the US and Japan is too large. The Bank of Japan's rate hikes are not keeping up with the Federal Reserve, plus global arbitrage trading is still ongoing, leading everyone to borrow yen to invest in dollar assets.

The central bank hasn't taken much action recently; the April meeting also remained unchanged. However, the June meeting might be a turning point. The market currently expects a 76% probability that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates to 1.0%. If that actually happens, the US-Japan interest rate differential will narrow, and the yen might have a chance to rebound.

According to institutional forecasts, some believe the yen could still fall to around 160 or even lower. But in the long term, for the yen to truly stop falling, it still depends on whether Japan's economy can genuinely improve, and whether wages and prices can form a healthy cycle. In the short term, the outlook is still bearish, but don’t be too pessimistic—there might be a turning point at next month’s central bank meeting.