#TradFi交易分享挑战

‍# Crude Oil Declines
Geopolitical risks fluctuate, oil prices stage a battle around $90

1. Market Trends: The “See-Saw” Between Missile Tensions and Ceasefire Agreements

‌Asian session plunge‌: Stimulated by progress in US-Iran asset thaw negotiations, Brent crude oil briefly fell to $90.8 per barrel (a 6.9% daily drop), with markets betting on the Strait of Hormuz reopening.

‌Midday reversal‌: News of a US military raid on Iran’s southern missile positions caused prices to surge to $95.2, with intraday volatility exceeding 5%, reintroducing a long-short tug-of-war.

‌Current oscillation‌: As of press time (16:00 Beijing time), oil prices hover around $93.5, as markets digest conflicting signals of “talks and action simultaneously.”

2. Technical Indicators: Oversold Rebound Faces Resistance at Key Moving Averages

‌Bull-bear dividing line‌:

‌Psychological level of $90‌: Acts as a support line for bulls (tested three times in May without breaking)

‌$95.3‌: Resistance level for the 10-day/20-day moving average death cross (precisely blocked at midday rebound high)

‌Momentum signals‌:

‌MACD green bars shrink‌: Bearish momentum weakens but no golden cross yet

‌RSI at 48‌: Hovering in neutral zone, awaiting a breakout for direction

‌Pattern warning‌:

Four-hour chart forms a “descending flag,” which, if broken above $95.5, could open upside space; losing $90 may trigger algorithmic sell-offs.

3. Key Price Anchors

‌First support‌: 92.3 — May’s lower boundary of the trading range

‌Second support‌: 90.0–88.5 — Year-to-date lows + maximum open interest in options

‌First resistance‌: 95.5–96.0 — 30-day moving average + last week’s breakout point

‌Second resistance‌: 99.8 — Geopolitical risk premium peak level

4. Market Outlook: The Tug-of-War Among Three Forces

‌Geopolitical tinderbox‌:

US “self-defense strikes” and Iran’s missile defense activation indicate potential escalation; the timeline for Strait of Hormuz reopening is the biggest variable. If blocked for over two weeks, oil could surge past $100.

‌Supply and demand undercurrents‌:

Bearish: Indian refiners shifting to Latin American crude (see Result 6), Middle Eastern spot premiums widening

Bullish: Attack on Russia’s Syzran refinery halts production (Result 7), tightening local supply

‌Capital battles‌:

Hedge funds’ net short positions hit a 18-month high, with short squeeze risks accumulating—if geopolitical tensions worsen, forcing short covering, prices could spike sharply.

‌Strategic tips‌: Currently, it’s advisable to defend the $90 support with short-term longs, add positions above $95.5, and if the US and Iran sign a formal agreement, decisively reverse to short. Beware of choppy oscillations caused by “mutual tug-of-war” between ceasefire agreements and military actions! $XPTUSD