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BTC has pulled back to around 77k, and market sentiment is clearly starting to heat up.
This wave is actually quite interesting; on one side, the situation with the US and Iran is making the market nervous, causing gold and crude oil to move first, and on the other side, $BTC is being brought up again to tell the "digital gold" story.
Honestly, when everyone is panicking, they always look for something safe and explosive, and BTC just happens to be in this position.
From a capital perspective, it feels like money is coming back.
Spot buying is much stronger than a few days ago, and leverage sentiment on the futures side is also rising.
Shorts are being squeezed a bit, longs are chasing a bit more, and the price has been pushed all the way up to nearly 78K, but don’t rush to call a bull run.
The options market is actually giving quite a mixed signal right now.
Short-term funds are optimistic; on Deribit, short-term options clearly show some people betting on continued rise, indicating many are betting that the war sentiment will continue to ferment, and BTC will surge again.
Looking at it from a longer-term perspective, medium- and long-term funds are not so confident; there are still quite a few protective positions in the far-term options.
To put it bluntly, big funds seem to be thinking:
First, make money from this wave of sentiment, but if they really want to go all-in long-term? Let’s see.
The technicals are also looking decent:
Reclaimed the short-term moving averages, the trend looks much smoother than a few days ago.
MACD momentum is recovering, showing signs of a secondary rally.
RSI has risen, but it’s not yet extreme, so there’s still room for short-term fluctuations.
The real key is still 77K-78K; if it holds here, the atmosphere will be completely different.
If it doesn’t hold, be careful—another wave of news-driven spikes could come and then be pulled back.
Everyone talks about fearing war, but their hands are frantically looking for opportunities.
Whether BTC’s current move is driven by safe-haven logic or just a quick emotional surge, we should be able to tell in the next few days.