#Polymarket每日热点

Are the US and Iran about to shake hands and make peace? Trump claimed that negotiations are "progressing smoothly," and this morning reports came out that the US and Iran have reached an understanding on the issue of Iran's frozen financial assets. Will the US and Iran reach a nuclear agreement by the end of May? My bet is yes. The reasons are as follows:

1. From the US perspective, the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has led to high oil prices, causing a sharp increase in domestic inflation, widespread public dissatisfaction, and growing calls for interest rate hikes. The Trump administration faces both economic and public pressure. Although the current deadlock—"unable to win, unable to negotiate"—has allowed the US to profit handsomely from the news advantage in the international financial markets, domestic pressure is mounting and it is "unsustainable." Therefore, the US also urgently needs to end this conflict and is very likely to make concessions on the most fundamental issue: the nuclear question.

2. From Iran's perspective, the continuous maritime blockade has prevented Iran from smoothly exporting crude oil, and maritime trade has been affected, worsening an already problematic economic situation. As the invaded party, Iran is more eager to end this war. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi previously stated, "Iran does not seek to become a nuclear-armed state," although his influence within Iran is not very strong at the moment, he at least represents the moderate faction's opinion. Iran may temporarily not possess nuclear weapons but will not make nuclear commitments; a ceasefire first, followed by further negotiations, might be Iran's bottom line.

3. From both sides, a clear deadline has been set for the end of May. Trump has publicly stated multiple times that "an agreement must be reached before the end of May," and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif also confirmed in a speech on May 22 that "the goal of negotiations is to finalize the text by the end of May." Both high-level officials have given explicit time constraints, with no apparent motivation to drag out negotiations: for Trump, achieving results before the US presidential primaries in June is a key campaign strategy, and breaking this promise could directly impact his approval ratings; for Iran, securing the unfrozen funds would alleviate domestic inflation (currently over 40%), so reaching an agreement quickly aligns with national interests.

4. The understanding on financial sanctions has been reached, and core disagreements have been addressed in advance.

Therefore, based on the above, I believe the US and Iran can reach a nuclear agreement by the end of May. However, considering the limited time left at the end of May, my betting strategy is to take a small position and play a game of chance.