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Are the US and Iran about to shake hands and make peace? Trump has claimed that negotiations are "progressing smoothly," and this morning there are reports that the US and Iran have reached an understanding on the issue of Iran's frozen financial assets. Will the US and Iran reach a nuclear agreement by the end of May? My bet is yes. The reasons are as follows:

1. From the US perspective, the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has led to soaring oil prices, causing a sharp increase in domestic inflation, widespread public discontent, and growing calls for interest rate hikes. The Trump administration faces dual pressures from the economy and public opinion. Although the current deadlock—"unable to win, unable to negotiate"—has allowed the US to profit handsomely from the news advantage in international financial markets, domestic pressure is mounting and it is "unsustainable." Therefore, the US also urgently needs to end this conflict and is very likely to make concessions on the most fundamental issue: the nuclear question.

2. From Iran's perspective, the continuous maritime blockade has prevented Iran from smoothly exporting crude oil, affecting maritime trade and worsening an already struggling economy. As the invaded party, Iran is more eager to end this war. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has previously stated, "Iran does not seek to become a nuclear-armed state," although his influence within Iran is not very strong at the moment, he at least represents the moderate faction's opinion. Iran may temporarily not possess nuclear weapons but will not make nuclear commitments; a ceasefire first, followed by further negotiations, might be Iran's bottom line.

3. From both sides, a clear deadline has been set for the end of May. Trump has repeatedly publicly stated that "an agreement will be reached before the end of May," and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif also confirmed in a speech on May 22 that "the goal of negotiations is to finalize the text by the end of May." Both high-level officials have given explicit time constraints, with no apparent motivation to delay: for Trump, achieving results before the US presidential primaries in June is a core part of his campaign strategy, and breaking this promise could directly impact his approval ratings; for Iran, unlocking frozen funds would alleviate domestic inflation (currently over 40%), so reaching an agreement quickly aligns with national interests.

4. The understanding on financial sanctions freeze has been reached, and core disagreements have been addressed in advance.

Therefore, based on the above, I believe the US and Iran can reach a nuclear agreement by the end of May. However, considering the limited time left at the end of May, my betting strategy is to take a small position and play a game of chance. $XPTUSD