Recently, someone asked me whether you can buy euros. This is actually a pretty good question, because the euro’s price trend has indeed been going through some interesting changes.

I’ll start with history, because to understand the euro today, you need to know what it has been through. During the 2008 financial crisis, the euro against the US dollar once surged to a historic high of 1.6038, and then it slid steadily from there. At that time, Europe’s banking system was under enormous pressure. Tightening credit led to a recession, and governments in various countries responded by sharply increasing fiscal deficits to save the economy. The European Central Bank then began cutting interest rates and implementing quantitative easing. Later, the euro sovereign-debt crisis broke out: the debt problems of five countries—Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and Italy—frightened investors, and the outlook for the entire eurozone looked bleak.

But interestingly, by early 2017, after the euro against the US dollar fell to 1.034, it began to rebound. Why? Because the ECB’s easing policies started to take effect. The eurozone’s unemployment rate dropped to below 10%, the manufacturing PMI broke above 55, and economic data improved noticeably. On top of that, 2017 was an election year in Europe, and the market felt optimistic about pro-EU governments coming to power. The policy uncertainty brought by Trump’s presidency in the US also made some funds flow into the euro. At that time, the euro was already severely oversold—down more than 35% from its 2008 peak—so with the bad news more or less priced in, a rebound was natural.

In February 2018, the euro rose to as high as 1.2556, reaching a new high since 2015, but it later pulled back again. The reason was that the Fed started raising interest rates and the US dollar strengthened, while economic growth in the eurozone slowed, along with Italy’s unstable political situation. This period teaches us an important lesson: the euro’s strength or weakness depends largely on relative factors between the US and Europe, not on how “good” the euro itself is.

In September 2022, the euro fell to 0.9536, hitting a 20-year low. At that time, the Russia-Ukraine war had just broken out. Energy prices in Europe surged, businesses’ costs skyrocketed, and the economic outlook looked grim. But starting in the second half of the year, things began to change: the ECB ended its 8-year era of negative interest rates by raising rates, energy prices also started to ease, and the euro began to rebound.

By January 2025, the euro fell again to around 1.02, its lowest level since November 2022. At that time, the eurozone economy was in poor shape. Germany experienced recession for two consecutive years. France’s manufacturing activity saw its worst decline since 2020, and consumer confidence was weak. Meanwhile, the Fed’s pace of rate cuts was slower than the ECB’s, causing the US-Europe interest-rate spread to widen; the US dollar remained strong, putting downward pressure on the euro. In addition, the market was worried that Trump’s tariff policies would harm Europe’s exports, so capital moved toward US dollar assets.

However, starting in March, the euro rebounded rapidly. By the end of January 2026, it even broke above the 1.20 mark for the first time since June 2021. What’s interesting is that this wasn’t because the euro itself became stronger; it was because the US dollar was weakening broadly. Trump repeatedly attacked the independence of the Fed and also threatened to impose tariffs on allies. Investors then started “selling America,” leading to capital outflows from US dollar assets, which benefited the euro. At the same time, market expectations were that the Fed would continue cutting rates, while the ECB would keep rates steady because inflation was stable. As the US-Europe interest-rate gap narrowed and the euro became more attractive.

Now let’s get to the key question: Can you buy euros?

I think there is still a chance over the next 5 years, but it depends on several key factors. First is the divergence in monetary policy between the US and Europe: if the Fed continues to cut rates while the ECB keeps interest rates, the shrinking interest-rate spread could push the euro higher. Second is whether Germany’s fiscal stimulus can be carried out smoothly: if Germany’s large-scale fiscal expansion succeeds, the eurozone economy could improve, and the euro could rebound into the 1.20 to 1.25 range. Third is geopolitics and energy prices: if the situation in Russia and Ukraine eases and energy prices fall, that would be a major positive for Europe—improving trade conditions, lowering corporate costs, and supporting economic growth by 0.2 to 0.5 percentage points.

But there are also plenty of risks. If the conflict escalates and energy prices surge, the ECB could be stuck in a policy dilemma, with the risk of stagflation rising. Capital may also rotate into the US dollar to seek safety. Moreover, Europe’s structural economic problems have not been fully resolved yet. Germany’s industrial output has not shown improvement either—these are long-term concerns.

As for how to invest in euros, there are several ways. You can open a foreign exchange account through a Taiwanese bank, but typically you can only buy with a bullish bias. You can also use foreign exchange brokers or CFD platforms, which have low capital requirements and are suitable for small investors. Some securities firms also offer foreign exchange trading services. There are also options through futures exchanges.

Overall, my preliminary judgment is that by 2026 the euro’s trend will be relatively strong, especially if the Fed continues cutting rates, the US-Europe interest-rate spread keeps narrowing, energy prices fall, and geopolitical risks ease. In the long run, with these structural factors providing support, the euro has the potential to maintain a relatively steady performance. But sustaining a one-way strong uptrend is still relatively challenging.

What’s worth paying close attention to next is changes in the US-Europe interest-rate spread, how Germany’s fiscal stimulus is progressing, and geopolitical and energy-related risks. These will all directly affect the answer to whether euros can be bought.