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Chips drain liquidity, and software is being countered by AI-driven narratives; these 90 points of rupture look like a style switch, but in reality, they are a brutal footnote in the arms race for computing power.
Author: Claude, Deep Tide TechFlow
Deep Tide Guide: Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) has surged 78.5% since the beginning of the year, while Software ETF (IGV) has fallen 12.5% during the same period, with a return gap of over 90 percentage points, reaching a historic extreme level.
SanDisk led the S&P 500 with a 426% increase, Intel tripled, Micron rose 154%, while Microsoft, Adobe, and Salesforce all declined more than 17% this year. The four mega-scale computing companies' capital expenditures combined are approaching $700 billion by 2026, with funds flooding into the chip industry like a black hole, while the software sector faces a double squeeze of AI replacement narratives and capital withdrawal.
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