Is the "unblocking" of the Strait of Hormuz possible? Oil bulls are starting to lose sleep!

Who has been the most panicked recently?
Not diplomats.
It's crude oil bulls.
Because as negotiations between the US and Iran heat up, the market suddenly begins to realize:
"Is the Strait of Hormuz not as dangerous as before?"
You should know,
This is the main artery of global oil transportation.
In the past, whenever Middle East tensions rose,
oil prices would immediately spike.
But now, the situation has suddenly reversed.
Especially after Donald Trump recently sent positive signals frequently, the market started to bet wildly:
"Will a nuclear deal be reached by the end of May?"
Polymarket is already lively like World Cup betting.
Some go all-in on YES;
Some firmly hold NO.
And I think:
The probability that both sides will "continue negotiations" in the short term is high,
but "formally signing an agreement" is not that easy.
Because the most complex part of international negotiations is never sitting down.
It's how to implement it.
The issues accumulated over the years in US-Iran relations are numerous.
Verification mechanisms,
regional security,
economic sanctions,
international supervision...
Each one is like a landmine.
Don’t be fooled by the current harmonious atmosphere,
When it comes to core interests,
they can turn hostile at any time.
What does international diplomacy resemble?
Like renovation.
At first, both sides say:
"Good to discuss."
When it’s time to pay:
"Isn’t this price wrong?"
Then they start arguing.
And now, the biggest problem in the market is:
The "peace expectation" has already been traded in advance.
This means—
As soon as a negative news appears,
oil prices and safe-haven assets could instantly rebound.
So, the real experts now don’t bet on the outcome.
They bet on:
Volatility.
Because the biggest feature of Middle East tensions is:
Reversals always happen faster than the plot.
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