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10x Research: Most Bitcoin treasury companies' NAV premiums have significantly compressed, and they may enter a negative premium era
Deep Tide TechFlow news: on May 26, 10x Research published an analysis on the X platform, pointing out that as Bitcoin volatility continues to decline, the NAV premiums of most Bitcoin treasury companies have been noticeably compressed, and some have even flipped into significant discounts—investor losses related to this have started to become apparent.
Historically, Grayscale’s GBTC once saw a 47% discount in December 2022. At the time, investors could nearly buy Bitcoin through this product at an implied price below $10k. The market had previously mistaken traditional financial-crypto packaged products for “Bitcoin leverage tools,” but in reality these structures are more akin to options products: when volatility rises, the implied value expands; when volatility falls, the valuation is compressed.
However, the current market mismatch may also open up new arbitrage windows for certain management teams with capital-operations capabilities.