Is Trump suddenly "softening his stance"? Polymarket is betting like crazy!

The most exciting ongoing drama worldwide recently isn't a Korean drama, nor an American series.
It's the United States and Iran.
Especially Donald Trump’s recent statement:
"Negotiations are progressing smoothly."
Immediately sending market sentiment soaring.
After all, what have US-Iran relations been like over the past few years?
Like two exes who block each other hundreds of times.
Arguing every day,
but never truly breaking up.
Now suddenly starting to "communicate actively," even rumors that the US is softening its stance on retaining some enriched uranium in Iran have emerged.
The market instantly imagines:
The Strait of Hormuz stabilizes;
oil prices fall;
global risks ease;
the world peace bull market begins.
So the hottest question on Polymarket appears:
"Will a nuclear deal be reached before the end of May?"
Many are already betting heavily on YES.
The reason is simple:
Trump now needs diplomatic achievements.
After all, the US presidential election pressure is getting closer.
If they can pull off a "major diplomatic breakthrough," it will definitely boost their score.
But the problem is:
International politics are never like posting on social media.
A simple phrase like "relations easing" doesn't mean a happy ending.
The real difficulty lies in the details.
How to regulate enriched uranium?
How to lift sanctions?
Who makes concessions first?
Who takes responsibility?
Each of these questions could be a three-season TV series on its own.
So I personally lean more towards:
In the short term, they might continue to send positive signals,
but truly reaching a comprehensive agreement before the end of May is still very challenging.
Because what do both sides resemble now?
Like a rekindling of a romantic relationship, testing the waters.
Chatting is fine;
dining is fine;
re-registering—let’s see.
And the funniest part of the market is:
As soon as the atmosphere eases,
capital immediately starts celebrating early.
Yesterday still shouting:
"Middle East war!"
Today it’s already:
"Global assets surge!"
The biggest feature of financial markets is:
They always peak first.#Polymarket每日热点