Polymarket prediction explodes: Does Trump really want to "reconcile" with Iran?

The hottest question in the prediction market recently is not AI, nor Bitcoin.
It's:
Will the US and Iran reach a nuclear agreement before the end of May?
Especially with Donald Trump's recent change in attitude, which directly stunned the market.
In the past:
Tough sanctions.
Now:
"Can talk."
There are even reports that the US's stance on Iran retaining enriched uranium is not as firm as before.
Many people instantly start fantasizing:
Falling oil prices,
Easing tensions in the Middle East,
Reduced global risks.
But here’s the question:
Can things really go this smoothly?
My personal view is very simple:
The probability of reaching a "full agreement" before the end of May is low.
There is only one reason:
Time is not enough.
International nuclear agreements are not live-stream sales.
It's not just a matter of saying:
"321, link it."
It involves a lot of complex details.
Especially since both sides trust each other extremely little.
To put it plainly:
It’s more like a "testing phase" now.
The US wants to see if Iran is willing to compromise.
Iran wants to confirm:
Will the US turn hostile?
After all, in the past few years,
The relationship between the two is no longer just ordinary conflicts.
It’s more like a soap opera-level grudge.
And Trump’s current positive signals are actually for a practical reason.
US inflation pressure is still there,
Oil prices are very sensitive.
If Middle East risks decrease,
Oil prices stabilize,
It would be a definite boon for the US economy.
So the market is now starting to bet early on "peaceful negotiations."
But the problem is:
Markets often overestimate short-term changes.
Many people now already assume:
An agreement is coming soon.
But seasoned international political players all know:
The biggest feature of the Middle East is—
One second shaking hands,
The next flipping the table.
So the smartest strategy now is not to blindly bet on a direction.
But to keep a good retreat route. #Polymarket每日热点