Trump's one sentence, and suddenly global traders start fantasizing about "world peace"!

The most outrageous scene in the financial markets recently has appeared:
Donald Trump said:
"Progress is smooth."
The global markets immediately started imagining the big ending.
Especially regarding the Iran nuclear deal issue.
In the past few years,
everyone has long been used to:
mutual sanctions,
mutual warnings,
mutual tough talk.
Now that the atmosphere suddenly eases,
the market is at a loss.
Most importantly,
the US seems to be beginning to accept:
Iran can retain some enriched uranium.
This means:
the negotiations are entering the true phase of exchanging interests.
So on Polymarket, predictions about "whether an agreement will be reached before the end of May" suddenly exploded.
Many people started heavily betting on YES.
Because they think:
Trump now especially needs diplomatic achievements.
Especially with the presidential election pressure getting closer,
if they can stabilize the Middle East situation,
it will definitely boost his political score.
But the problem is:
Iran also knows you're in a hurry.
So they will try to gain more benefits.
This is the most authentic part of international negotiations.
Everyone smiles on the surface,
but underneath the table, they are frantically foot-stomping.
And now there is another key issue:
time is too short.
Nuclear agreements involve not just two countries.
There are also international oversight,
regional allies,
sanction systems.
It's not as simple as saying:
"we're on good terms now."
It can take effect immediately.
So I think:
there may be "phase results" before the end of May,
but a truly complete agreement remains very difficult.
However, the market has already started celebrating in advance.
This is the most interesting part of capital markets:
when news just shows signs,
the prices have already soared.
Because the market is never trading reality.
It’s trading expectations.

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