Just finished checking the on-chain data and saw stablecoin supply being used again as “ironclad proof that funds are about to enter the market”… and I can’t help but want to rant a bit: stablecoin supply rising doesn’t mean buy-side demand is rising. Sometimes it’s just being moved from one place to another, or exchanges/market makers adjust their positions—things look exciting on the chart, but in reality it might just be a case of switching pockets.

It’s the same with ETFs, too: over the same stretch of time, off-exchange capital flows in and out, and stablecoin minting and burning can move at the same time. But let’s be honest—correlation can be really good at fooling people. Don’t get carried away and start inventing a causal chain in your head.

While I’m at it, I’ll also complain about the airdrop season right now. The points system plus anti–Sybil/anti-anti-witch measures means “airdrop farmers” are grinding like they’re clocking in for work. Making a few transfers on-chain feels like writing your weekly report… Anyway, for my part I’ll still focus on where the money ultimately lands— and whether it makes its way back to exchanges.