Iran Nuclear Deal: Can an Agreement Be Reached Before the End of May?

With only a few days left until the end of May, whether Iran and the U.S. can reach a nuclear agreement before then has become a focal point for global markets. From the latest developments, negotiations have indeed made unexpectedly positive progress, but there is still a significant gap before an official signing. Overall, the likelihood of reaching a "provisional understanding memorandum" before the end of May is high, but a comprehensive nuclear deal is almost impossible to implement in the short term.

Positive Signals: Breakthroughs in Three Major Areas

Recently, a flurry of favorable news has been released. According to U.S. officials, the Iran-U.S. framework agreement is currently "95% achieved," and both sides are negotiating the final wording. Regarding asset unfreezing, under Qatari mediation, both sides have reached an understanding on Iran’s frozen financial assets, clearing a major obstacle for other issues. There is also a preliminary plan for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, reportedly to be implemented in phases, with the first phase involving the unfreezing of $12 billion in Iranian assets and the start of demining the strait. President Trump has also repeatedly stated on social media that the negotiations are "progressing smoothly."

Substantive Obstacles: Three Major Disagreements Remain Unresolved

However, beneath the optimistic statements, core disagreements have not truly been bridged. The issue of uranium enrichment disposal is the toughest nut to crack. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has explicitly ordered that enriched uranium stockpiles must not be exported, arguing that transferring nuclear material abroad would weaken Iran’s security. Although Trump recently proposed a compromise—allowing destruction of uranium under international supervision within Iran—the contest over the dominant method of disposal continues.

The deliberate shelving of nuclear issues itself poses the greatest hidden danger. Iran repeatedly emphasizes that the current negotiations focus on ending the imposed war, and that nuclear issues will be addressed in subsequent phases—meaning the core dispute over enrichment rights has not entered substantive negotiations. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has made it clear it will not sign any agreement that paves the way for Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. The fundamental disagreements have not disappeared; they have only been postponed.

There are fundamental contradictions in the statements about strait management rights. Trump claims the agreement will "open the Strait of Hormuz," while Iran emphasizes that even if an understanding is reached, the strait’s management rights will remain fully under Iran’s control, and "this does not mean a return to completely free passage as before the conflict."

Each Side’s Calculations: Agreements Rely on Different Foundations, Justifications for Breach Are Ready

From the motivations of both sides, Iran faces enormous economic pressure, and unfreezing assets and lifting sanctions are urgent needs; Trump, on the other hand, is eager to demonstrate diplomatic achievements. But the shadows of history are deep—Iran has repeatedly accused the U.S. of inconsistent positions and has made it clear it will not be overly optimistic easily. Even if an agreement is signed, supervision and compliance will be prioritized. For Iran, the memorandum is more like a window for respite and a tool to re-enter subsequent negotiations; Trump also gains a bargaining chip to show progress domestically. However, if conditions do not allow "the U.S. to get everything it wants," he can turn hostile at any time.

Overall Assessment

With only a few days remaining before the end of the month, it is possible that a roughly 60-day understanding memorandum could be signed at the negotiation table as a transitional arrangement for a ceasefire and subsequent talks. But regardless of how each side interprets this document, uranium enrichment remains within Iran, and the framework of nuclear capability has not been substantively dismantled. The real test lies in the long negotiations of the second phase. #PolymarketDailyHotspot