Yesterday I checked my options positions, and it suddenly made sense why buyers always feel like they’re getting “backstabbed by time.” You’re buying probabilities—time value is like the cost of a ticket, and every day it gets shaved off a bit. The seller is more like an amusement-park operator: ticket money is collected upfront, and if you drag it out, it’s very likely to get worn down to nothing. To put it simply, if the market doesn’t move, the buyer is paying rent and the seller is collecting rent. Lately, those large on-chain transfers and any movement between an exchange’s hot and cold wallets are being labeled as “smart money.” I also get an itch to chase, but when I think it through, the biggest fear for buyers chasing hot trends is those few days of “waiting for it to cash out,” only to find that what actually “pays off” is the time value. Anyway, for now I only dare to run small positions like assigned tasks; if I really want to ramp up, I’d rather do a more seller-oriented structure—at least then my mindset won’t be so shattered.

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