Recently, I’ve been sorting through some of the most promising cryptocurrency investment ideas, and I found that many people are still a bit unclear about the logic behind picking coins in the crypto world. Instead of asking how to choose, it’s better to first figure out whether you’re in a bull market or a bear market—because that directly determines your investment strategy.

In a bull market, everyone wants to buy the dip on altcoins to chase returns of 10x or 20x. But in a bear market, you have to behave and go back to mainstream coins, because at that time, altcoins can fall like a bottomless pit. I’ve heard this line countless times, and I’m increasingly understanding the deeper logic behind it.

When it comes to the most promising cryptocurrencies, the coins in the top ten by market cap are definitely worth paying attention to. I compiled the latest rankings: BTC is still firmly in first place, with a circulating market cap of $1.54 trillion and a market share of 57%—an absolute leader. ETH follows right behind it, with a market cap of $252.7 billion and a 9.38% market share. The positions of these two coins are basically unshakable.

Stablecoin USDT’s market cap is now $189.6 billion. Although it has extremely low volatility, its liquidity is unbeatable, and many people use it as cash reserves. XRP, BNB, and SOL are also all in the top ten—each has its own story. XRP has always had a loyal fan base thanks to its payment-related nature. BNB is the model example of a platform coin. And SOL has been wildly popular in the MEME coin ecosystem over the past two years.

But I need to be honest: the most promising cryptocurrencies aren’t just about looking at rankings. Based on my own experience, beginners should stick to BTC and ETH. These two coins have survived so many ups and downs and are still doing well—meaning they have the strongest ability to withstand risk. BTC’s scarcity is unrivaled: there are only 21 million in total, and the circulating rate is already 95.4%. ETH may not have a hard supply cap, but its smart-contract ecosystem is truly strong, and the total value locked has consistently stayed at the top position in the industry.

If you want to get more aggressive, DOGE, ADA, and SOL are also options to consider, but you have to be mentally prepared for higher volatility. SOL is especially interesting. It calls itself an “Ethereum killer” and can process 65,000 transactions per second—far outpacing Ethereum’s 15 to 30 transactions—and its transaction fees are much cheaper too. That’s also why it suddenly caught fire during the MEME coin boom.

I’ve seen too many beginner mistakes: getting dazzled by altcoins with a bunch of zeros after the decimal point, thinking that as long as the price rises to a tenth of a unit, they can get rich overnight. The reality is that most of these coins either go to zero or are on the way to going to zero. I’ve done something like that before too—I traded mainstream coins for a pile of junk coins, and ended up losing out on both sides.

As for how to buy: if you’re a beginner, register on a mainstream trading platform, buy stablecoins first, and then swap into the coin(s) you want. BTC and ETH can be bought directly with fiat currency. But what I recommend more is long-term holding. Don’t constantly stare at the candlestick charts— the more you watch, the more you’ll want to sell. The best approach is to transfer your coins to a wallet and keep them somewhere you can’t access at all, so you won’t be scared off by short-term fluctuations.

Long-term investing is truly much easier than short-term trading. You don’t have to watch the market every day, and you also save on fees. In 2018, when BTC was around $5,000, I bought 3 coins. I sold at $7,000, and later regretted it when it reached $12,000. But the crash in 3/12 gave me a second chance to get back on board. That’s why long-term holding is so important: you can’t predict every market move, but as long as you hold the most promising cryptocurrencies, you can lock in long-term upside returns.

Finally, there’s one very important point that you really can’t ignore: asset security. After working so hard to make it through the bear market and into the bull market, if one day you find out your coins have been stolen, that would be a tragedy. Protect your exchange account password, and if you’re using a wallet, keep your private key and seed phrase properly secured. Also, stay away from all kinds of DApps on your wallet—risks are everywhere.

In summary, if you’re a conservative investor, BTC and ETH are enough. If you want more choices, you can add mainstream coins like DOGE, ADA, and SOL. But no matter what you choose, make sure you have your own plan—don’t blindly follow the crowd, and don’t get caught up in the stories of small coins. The most promising cryptocurrencies are often the ones that have been tested through challenges and have real use cases. Over the long term, their performance is the most reliable.