My current view is that the probability of some form of U.S.–Iran agreement before the end of May has increased noticeably, even if it’s not a complete long-term nuclear resolution yet.

The language coming from both sides feels less confrontational compared to earlier stages of the negotiations. Trump recently saying talks are “going well” matters because markets pay close attention to tone shifts before official announcements ever happen.

What’s also important is the discussion around Iran’s enriched uranium remaining inside the country. That signals the U.S. may be moving toward a more flexible negotiating position instead of demanding immediate maximal concessions.

From a market perspective, this is bigger than politics alone.

If tensions ease:
• Oil market pressure could cool down
• Risk appetite globally could improve
• The Strait of Hormuz reopening smoothly would reduce a major geopolitical risk factor
• Crypto and equities could benefit from improving macro sentiment

That’s why prediction markets are getting more attention around this event.

Personally, I don’t think everything gets fully solved overnight. These negotiations are complex and historically fragile.

But I do think both sides currently have stronger incentives to show progress rather than escalation.

So my prediction:
A temporary framework, partial agreement, or diplomatic breakthrough feels more likely than a complete collapse in talks right now.

Still expecting volatility because one headline can shift sentiment instantly.

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