Why am I firmly bearish on the US stock market? There are only two main reasons: the outrageously high price-to-earnings ratio and Warren Buffett's nearly $400 billion in cash on hand.


Let's talk about the P/E ratio. Currently, the S&P 500's P/E ratio is around 27 to 29 times, and Shiller's cyclically adjusted P/E ratio is even close to 38 times, which is already at a historically extreme high level. Only during the dot-com bubble in 2000 was it higher than now. This means that, right now, buying US stocks requires paying nearly $30 for every dollar of profit. This valuation is clearly too expensive. $MSFT
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