Bitcoin has returned to $77,000, but this rally was not driven by buying; it was squeezed out by short covering.

Over the past week, exchanges saw a net inflow of approximately 18,000 BTC, while US spot ETFs experienced a net outflow of about 16,000 BTC during the same period, totaling 34k BTC of potential selling pressure hanging above the market.
The main driver of the rebound is short covering—open interest has slightly rebounded after declining, and the funding rate remains in a bearish zone.
This means that if spot buying does not keep up, the $80k level could become a gathering point for shorts again.
Derivatives data shows a large accumulation of short positions in the $78,000–$83,000 range; breaking through $82k could trigger a short squeeze, but only if there is genuine spot demand.
The current market structure is like a stretched rubber band: shorts are overly concentrated, but bulls lack confidence.
Whether the rebound can continue depends not on sentiment but on whether ETF outflows slow down and exchange inflows decrease.
Before the funding rate turns positive, every rally could be an opportunity for shorts to add positions.
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