Looking back at 2025, gold was undoubtedly the star of the year. It went from hovering around $2,700 in January to reaching highs close to $4,350 per ounce in December, a historic rally that left many investors speechless. I personally did not expect it to rise so strongly, considering that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also had solid years.

The factors behind this rise were quite clear if you look closely. The Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates mid-year, which weakened the dollar and favored any asset denominated in that currency. Additionally, trade tensions between the U.S. and China escalated significantly, with tariffs reaching 145% at times, leading many to seek refuge in precious metals.

I cannot overlook the role of central banks. China, Russia, and other emerging markets bought gold consistently, adding more than 240 tons just in the first quarter. That maintains a structural demand floor that is hard to ignore. Gold ETFs also played an important role, acting as a catalyst in the upward movements.

In technical terms, the metal showed a very clear bullish structure. Although there were occasional corrections, especially when risk sentiment improved or when there were signs of trade détente, the overall trend was upward. The RSI frequently entered overbought territory, but that did not stop the rally.

What’s interesting is that gold will likely rise in line with the same drivers that propelled it in 2025. Central banks will continue buying if geopolitical tensions persist. Monetary policy will remain accommodative in many economies. And as long as macroeconomic or trade uncertainty persists, the metal will remain investors’ favorite wildcard.

Analysts from major banks projected prices between $2,750 and $3,000 for 2025, but clearly the market had other plans. Goldman Sachs spoke of $2,973, Bank of America of $2,750, but gold ended up surpassing $4,300. That tells us they underestimated the magnitude of risk aversion and safe-haven demand.

If I learned anything from 2025, it’s that gold responds to a mix of factors where geopolitics and monetary policy play a more significant role than traditional models suggest. As long as the dollar remains weak and global tensions persist, I wouldn’t be surprised to see new highs ahead.