#TradFi交易分享挑战 US Dollar Index Market Analysis

Last week, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the April monetary policy meeting, with some officials generally believing that, due to high inflation combined with uncertainties in the Middle East situation, the current interest rate policy may need to be maintained for a longer period. However, the minutes also sent a key signal: if inflation remains above 2%, rate hikes will be considered. The CPI data released in April showed an increase to 3.8%, and the market expects inflation in May to rise above 4%.
Currently, it is clear that a significant rise in inflation has become a certainty. As expectations for rate hikes gradually intensify, this will inevitably support the upward movement of the US dollar index.
Last week, the US dollar index mainly traded strongly around 99.30-99.50. From the current fundamentals, although the release of monetary policy signals supporting rate hikes provides support for the dollar index, recent comments from Trump stating that the US and Iran have basically reached an agreement, with final details to be announced soon, and Iran also indicating that a memorandum of understanding is about to be finalized, have influenced the market. As a result, the Asian market saw the dollar index briefly retreat to around 99.00 on Monday.
This week, focus on the final outcome of US-Iran negotiations. If substantial progress is made, the dollar index may have room to decline in the short term. The weekly chart shows that last week, the dollar index fluctuated between 98.93 and 99.51. On Monday, the Asian market experienced a short-term pullback, with the current position around 99.00. From a weekly perspective, the dollar index previously rebounded after being supported by a medium- to long-term upward trend line. Although the price showed a rally and pullback in the short term, this does not mean the rebound has ended. If the dollar index consolidates and then again tests the resistance at 100.15 and successfully holds above it, a new upward trend is likely to emerge. Conversely, if the correction continues and the index effectively breaks below the medium- to long-term trend line support at 97.93, this scenario would signal the end of the dollar index’s upward trend. Overall, caution is advised as the future trend could change direction at any time. Support level: 97.93; Resistance level: 100.15$USIDX