May 26th Bitcoin Market Trend Analysis

1. Weekly Chart: The previous week's bearish engulfing pattern led to further decline; this week's candlestick shows a long lower shadow, indicating buying interest below; it broke the previous low but quickly recovered, finding support at the previous consolidation high. If the weekly chart effectively breaks below this support, it will test lower lows; currently, the support is temporarily holding.
2. Daily Chart: Previously broke below the previous low and recovered; repeatedly retested the upper boundary of key zones and quickly bounced back each time, indicating a short-term rebound trend is established, but the overall major trend remains downward, and there is still a possibility of further breakdown of the previous low.
3. Hourly Chart & Wave Theory:
1. After breaking the key low point and consolidating, a large bullish candle recovered, causing short sellers to exit their positions, which boosted a short-term rebound, typical of a false breakout followed by recovery.
2. The movement shows a downward wave structure; the current rebound is tentatively labeled as Wave A, with a high probability of subsequent Wave B decline and Wave C rebound.
3. The rebound targets are the previous high and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level; this zone overlaps with a downward gap and many stop-loss levels for short positions, so reaching this area may lead to resistance and a pullback.
4. Pattern & Trend: On a smaller scale, a head-and-shoulders top pattern is forming; the recent upward lows are gradually decreasing, momentum for the bulls is weakening, and a lower high is likely to form, with clear resistance to further upward movement.
5. Trading Strategy: Currently in a range-bound consolidation, with no clear breakout trend; it is not recommended to buy the dip or short immediately. Wait for a breakout above previous highs or a rejection at resistance before considering short positions. The focus is on short-term B-wave declines, with potential for C-wave rebounds afterward.