Based on Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Wave Theory, Volume-Price Relationship, Order Flow, and Price Action, an analysis of BTC short-term trend

$BTC ‌1. Dow Theory (Dow Theory)
Main trend (1-hour level): The medium-term downtrend from the high point of 82,448 on May 10 is still ongoing. Continuous cliff-like crashes occurred on May 22–23, dropping from 77,829 to 74,251, creating a near 5-day new low. However, at 20:00 on May 23, a shocking V-shaped reversal appeared, surging from 74,251 to 77,188. Subsequently, May 24 showed highly volatile movement, with an early rebound to 77,375, an afternoon plunge to 76,009, and a rebound at the close to 76,996. On May 25, the trend was relatively stable, oscillating in the 76,850–77,350 range in the morning, then strongly rebounding to 77,805, hitting a nearly 3-day high, and falling back to 77,160 at the close. The medium-term downtrend remains, but the volatile rebound after the crash indicates strong buying support below, and the market is building a bottom structure in the 76,000–78,000 range.

Short-term trend (15-minute level): The movement on May 25 shows a typical "oscillating upward" feature. The short-term high points moved from 77,164 (00:30) to 77,391 (02:00), then to 77,520 (06:00), then to 77,616 (09:30), and finally to 77,805 (15:00). The short-term lows moved from 76,936 (01:00) to 76,827 (01:45), then to 76,899 (04:15), then to 77,111 (07:15), and to 77,206 (13:15). Highs and lows moved upward simultaneously with stable speed, indicating the short-term trend has shifted from oscillation to a clear upward trend. Connecting 74,251, 76,009, and 77,805, the upward trend line is very steep, showing a fierce bullish counterattack.

Dow conclusion: The main trend remains downward, but the short-term trend has reversed to upward. The oscillating upward structure on May 25 confirms the dominance of short-term bulls. The key resistance above is 78,104; if the price can break through this level effectively, the short-term upward trend is confirmed to continue, targeting 79,000. If the rebound is blocked at 77,805 and falls back below 76,500, the short-term upward trend will be broken, returning to oscillation.

2. Chan Theory (Chan Theory)
Pattern structure: At the 15-minute level, multiple valid top and bottom fractals are marked on the chart.

Top fractals: Appear at 78,017 (May 21 17:45), 77,829 (May 22 04:15), 77,491 (May 22 12:15), 76,995 (May 22 17:30), 75,781 (May 22 23:00), 77,286 (May 23 21:00), 77,375 (May 24 10:15), 76,694 (May 24 20:00), 77,164 (May 25 00:30), 77,391 (May 25 02:00), 77,520 (May 25 06:00), 77,616 (May 25 09:30), 77,805 (May 25 15:00), 77,740 (May 25 17:00). Top fractals appear densely, but the 77,805 at 15:00 on May 25 is the most important recent top fractal.

Bottom fractals: Appear at 76,642 (May 21 13:30), 75,570 (May 22 19:30), 74,251 (May 23 07:45), 76,009 (May 24 21:45), 76,936 (May 25 01:00), 76,827 (May 25 01:45), 76,899 (May 25 04:15), 77,111 (May 25 07:15), 77,206 (May 25 13:15), 77,136 (May 26 00:00). The 74,251 at 07:45 on May 23 is the most recent significant bottom fractal, also the 5-day new low.

Bi (Pen) and Line Segments: From the top fractal at 78,017 to the bottom fractal at 75,570, a very strong downward stroke (brown line) with a decline of about 2,447. Then from 75,570 bottom fractal to 74,251 bottom fractal, an extension of the downward stroke (brown line), with a decline of about 1,319, totaling approximately 3,766. Next, from 74,251 bottom fractal to 77,188 top fractal (May 23 20:00), a very strong upward stroke (blue line), with a rise of about 2,937. Then from 77,188 to 77,375 (May 24 10:15), an extension of the upward stroke (blue line), with a gain of about 187. Following, from 77,375 to 76,009, a downward stroke (brown line), with a decline of about 1,366. Then from 76,009 to 77,805, a very strong upward stroke (blue line), with a gain of about 1,796, surpassing the previous downward stroke, indicating a fierce bullish counterattack. Currently, from the 77,805 top fractal, the price is constructing a new initial downward stroke, with the latest low at 77,136.

Central zone: In the 76,500–77,500 range, candlesticks are densely interwoven, forming a central zone in Chan Theory. The current price at 77,160 is just near the upper boundary of this zone, indicating a retest after an upward breakout of the central zone. If the price can hold above the upper boundary (above 77,500), the breakout is valid, and the outlook is bullish; if it falls back inside the zone (below 77,000), the breakout fails, and it reverts to oscillation.

Chan Theory conclusion: The downward stroke ended at 76,009, and the upward stroke was very strong (+1,796) and may have ended at 77,805. Currently, the price is in a transition stage between the end of the upward stroke and the beginning of a new downward stroke. Short-term focus on whether an effective bottom fractal can form near 77,136; if yes, the downward stroke is likely ending. If the price drops directly below 76,500, the downward stroke extension is confirmed, and further decline to 76,009 increases.

3. Wave Theory (Elliott Wave)
Based on the 1-hour wave structure, the V-shaped rebound from the low point of 74,251 on May 23 is divided into typical "ABC rebound + extension" pattern:

Wave A (rebound): From 74,251 to 75,594 (May 23 14:00), about +1,343. Rapid rebound, initial bullish signs, strong momentum.

Wave B (correction): From 75,594 back to 75,288 (May 23 17:45), about -306. Very mild correction, only 22.8% of Wave A, indicating bulls are reluctant to deepen correction.

Wave C (main upward rebound): From 75,288 to 77,188 (May 23 20:00), about +1,900. About 1.41 times Wave A, showing a fierce bullish counterattack.

Wave 1 (extension): From 76,637 (May 23 23:00) to 77,375 (May 24 10:00), about +826. Continues Wave C rebound but with weakening strength.

Wave 2 (deep correction): From 77,375 plunging to 76,130 (May 24 14:00), about -1,246. Retracement reaches 150.8% of Wave 1, very deep correction, indicating heavy selling pressure at high levels.

Wave 3 (minor decline): From 76,130 slightly down to 76,009 (May 24 21:00), about -121. Weakening downward momentum, showing bearish power is waning.

Wave 4 (strong rebound): From 76,009 surging to 77,805 (May 25 15:00), about +1,796. Very strong rebound, about 144.2% of Wave 2 decline, indicating bulls are fully dominant.

From the high of 77,805, the price has retraced to 77,160, a decline of about 645, roughly 35.9% of Wave 4. In wave theory, this suggests two possibilities:

1. Extension of Wave 5: The current correction is a sub-wave (Wave 5-2) within Wave 5, with further higher highs expected in Wave 5-3, 5-4, 5-5, targeting 78,500–79,000.

2. End of ABC rebound: Wave 4 rebound is complete, and the price is entering a new downward impulsive wave 1, with subsequent targets possibly dropping to 76,000–76,500.

Wave conclusion: The current phase is early in the correction after Wave 4. The retracement is only 35.9%. If the price stabilizes and rebounds in the 76,500–77,000 range, Wave 5 extension is likely; if it drops below 76,500 directly, the ABC rebound is confirmed over, and a new decline begins.

4. Volume-Price Relationship (Volume-Price Analysis)
Overall volume-price features: On May 25, a relatively healthy volume-price pattern appeared. During the morning oscillation, volume was relatively subdued; during the afternoon rebound, significant volume increase was observed; during the late decline, volume gradually decreased. The volume on upward moves was clearly larger than on downward moves, indicating short-term bullish dominance.

Key volume-price nodes:

- 04:00 on May 25: A large bullish candle with volume 1.83B, surging from 76,933 to 77,292, with a real body of 359 and a lower shadow of 34, confirming early bullish strength.

- 09:00 on May 25: A large bullish candle with volume 3.95B, from 77,367 to 77,517, real body 150, upper shadow 99, indicating selling pressure starting above 77,616.

- 15:00 on May 25: A huge bearish candle with volume 8.08B, from 77,632 to 77,550, real body 82, upper shadow 173, showing very heavy selling pressure above 77,805, forming a "shooting star" bearish pattern.

- 17:00 on May 25: A large bearish candle with volume 2.51B, from 77,663 to 77,501, real body 162, confirming active selling at the close.

- 21:00 on May 25: A large bullish candle with volume 1.16B, from 77,206 to 77,292, real body 86, indicating buy support at lower levels.

Recent 10 x 15-minute candles: From 77,292 oscillating down to 77,160, with decreasing volume on both declines and rebounds, showing market waiting for direction in the 77,100–77,300 range.

Volume-price conclusion: During the rebound, large volume support appeared; during late decline, volume decreased, indicating short-term bullish strength. If subsequent correction reaches 76,800–77,000 with decreasing volume and stabilizes, it confirms bullish dominance; if volume surges below 76,500, bearish pressure resumes.

5. Order Flow (Order Flow)
Volume Profile: The recent 3-day volume control point (POC) is at 76,801, the area with the densest trading, forming the current key value zone center. POC has moved up from 76,711 yesterday to 76,801, indicating the market’s value center is gradually rising.

Current analysis: Price at 77,160 is about 359 above POC, in the above-value zone, with moderate deviation. In order flow theory, returning above POC suggests short-term buyers are regaining control, and the market is recovering from discount to fair valuation. The current price is above POC; if it can hold above POC, bulls are favored; if it falls below POC, bears regain control.

High-volume nodes (HVN): Several HVN zones marked:

- 77,636–77,779: Resistance HVN (high-volume area at rebound high on May 25)

- 77,209–77,352: Mid-resistance HVN (early morning high-volume area on May 25)

- 76,735–76,867: Core support HVN (near POC, now broken into support)

Delta analysis (bottom sub-chart): Delta shows a significant positive shift (+200 million) during the 04:00 rebound, confirming active buying. At 15:00, Delta sharply turns negative (-300 million), confirming strong active sell pressure above 77,805. At 21:00, Delta turns positive again (+100 million), confirming active buy support at the close. Currently, Delta MA12 has turned positive, indicating buying power is recovering but not yet dominant.

Order flow conclusion: Price above POC 76,801 favors short-term buyers; the market is restoring to fair value. Resistance at 77,500 and 77,800 are key HVNs; if Delta remains positive and volume breaks through these levels, further rise toward 78,500 is possible. If Delta turns negative and price drops below 76,800, risk of correction to POC 76,801 increases.

6. Price Action (Price Behavior)
Support and resistance levels:

- Strong resistance: 82,448 (high point), 82,054 (rebound high), 81,647 (previous wave high), 78,104 (May 21 high, recent highest), 77,829 (May 22 high)

- Key resistance: 77,805 (rebound high on May 25), 77,375 (rebound high on May 24), 77,188 (V-reversal high on May 23), 77,000 (round number)

- Key support: 76,637 (low on May 23 23:00), 76,009 (low on May 24 21:00, latest low), 76,000 (round number), 75,570 (crash low on May 22), 74,251 (crash low on May 23, 5-day new low)

Candlestick patterns:

- May 25 15:00: A long upper shadow bearish candle (body 82, upper shadow 173) near 77,805, indicating heavy overhead selling pressure, forming a "shooting star" bearish pattern.

- May 25 04:00: A long lower shadow bullish candle (body 359, lower shadow 34), from 76,933 to 77,292, showing strong buying support below, forming a "hammer" bullish pattern.

- May 25 09:00: A bullish candle with long upper shadow (body 150, upper shadow 99), from 77,367 to 77,517, indicating overhead selling pressure starting above 77,616.

- May 25 21:00: A volume-increasing bullish candle (body 86), from 77,206 to 77,292, with buy support at low levels, short-term bullish.

Trend structure:

- Short-term: Rising channel (connecting 74,251, 76,009, 77,805 with a very steep trendline)

- Mid-term: The downtrend since 77,829 on May 22 shows signs of reversal but not fully confirmed.

Price action conclusion: The short-term is in a key battle zone between the upper boundary of the rising channel and previous high resistance. 77,805 is a critical dividing line: a breakout confirms continuation of the uptrend toward 78,104+; a rejection and fall back tests support at 76,800–77,000.

Overall assessment:
Dow Theory indicates the main trend remains downward but has reversed to upward in the short term, with key levels at 78,104 (up) and 76,500 (down). Chan Theory shows downward stroke ended at 76,009, with a very strong upward stroke (+1,796), now transitioning to a potential downward initial stroke. Wave Theory suggests the 4th wave rebound is very strong, with a 35.9% retracement near 77,000, indicating two possibilities: extension of Wave 5 or end of ABC correction. Volume-Price shows a healthy rebound with volume support, and order flow indicates the price is above POC 76,801 with Delta turning positive. Price action shows "hammer" and "shooting star" patterns, with intense short-term battle.

Short-term strategy suggestions:

- Bullish scenario: If price maintains above 76,800–77,000 with decreasing volume and forms a bottom fractal, consider light long positions targeting 77,805 then 78,104, with stops below 76,500.

- Bearish scenario: If rebound reaches 77,805–77,900 with volume surge and forms a top fractal, confirming the end of upward impulse, consider short positions targeting 76,500 then 76,009, with stops above 78,200.

Current state: At 77,160, in the middle of the rising channel, slightly bullish in the short term but the mid-term downtrend is not fully broken. Wait for clearer signals before entering, and in the 76,800–77,800 range, consider light high/low trades with strict stop-losses.