I have recently noticed that the gold market is experiencing an interesting state of instability. The year started with a frenzy - gold jumped to record levels we haven't seen before, touching $5,600 per ounce in January. But then something completely different happened.

In March, gold entered a sharp correction phase, losing about 11.8% of its value - the worst monthly performance since 2008. Now in April and May, it’s moving around $4,700-$4,800. The psychological level of $5,000 still remains a real obstacle.

What draws attention is the significant divergence in gold forecasts from major institutions. JPMorgan expects it to reach $6,300 by the end of the year, while UBS raises its target to $6,200 (with an upside scenario reaching $7,200 if geopolitical tensions escalate). Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley is more cautious and sees $4,600 as the baseline scenario.

A Reuters poll of 30 analysts raised the average gold forecast for 2026 to $4,746.50 - the highest annual average since 2012. This reflects genuine confidence in the market despite the volatility.

The fundamental drivers remain strong: inflation rose again to 3.3% in March, geopolitical risks persist, and central banks remain strong buyers. But at the same time, the strength of the dollar and rising bond yields are putting pressure on prices.

2025 was exceptional for gold - it increased by about 70% during the year. Now in 2026, the challenge is whether this momentum will continue or if we will see longer consolidation.

From an investment perspective, options are diverse: if you’re looking for the long term, physical gold or gold ETFs provide real security. But if you’re interested in short-term trading on volatility, CFDs offer higher flexibility with leverage - but beware, leverage amplifies both profits and losses.

The key point: gold forecasts for the second half of 2026 remain positive, but the path will not be a straight upward line. Expect more volatility, especially with every Federal Reserve statement or new geopolitical development. Those who understand this dynamic will be better positioned to make the right decisions.