I recently looked at the silver price charts and honestly, I am shocked by what has happened. In January, we rose above $121 per ounce, which is historic, but then there was a crash of over 30 percent within a few hours. I have never experienced anything like that. The volatility is simply brutal.

What interests me, though: Is this just a correction or a warning sign? I did some research, and the reasons are actually understandable. The new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is considered a supporter of higher interest rates, which makes the dollar stronger. A strong dollar is not good for silver because it then becomes more expensive for international buyers. That partly explains the crash.

But here’s the interesting part: There is a structural supply deficit. The silver market has been running a deficit for the sixth consecutive year. Mine production stagnates at about 813 million ounces per year, but demand continues to grow. About 75 percent of silver is a byproduct of other metals, so production cannot simply be ramped up when prices rise.

Additionally: Industrial demand will increase massively. Solar panels, electric vehicles, AI infrastructure – all need silver. According to the Silver Institute, this will continue to grow strongly until 2030. That’s the bullish case some analysts are presenting. Citigroup, for example, forecasts $150 within the next three months and calls silver “gold on steroids.”

Others are more pessimistic. Marko Kolanovic from JP Morgan expects $50 by 2026. Goldman Sachs simply anticipates extreme volatility. So, no consensus.

I think the future of silver prices is indeed exciting but also risky. The structural deficit is real, industrial demand is growing, but the dollar and monetary policy can change everything. Anyone thinking about silver should view it with a long-term horizon and not hope for short-term explosions. The past few months show: everything can turn quickly. Personally, I am mainly interested in how the silver price will develop if tech demand continues to increase. That could be the long-term game-changer.