Recently, people have been asking me, will gold prices fall again?

This is a good question, indicating that everyone is starting to think seriously rather than blindly following the trend.

First, the conclusion: gold prices will definitely have a correction, but where the bottom is depends on how you view the future of the U.S. dollar credit system.

The current gold rally, on the surface, is driven by rate cuts, inflation, and geopolitical risks, but if you only stay at this level, it’s easy to be scared out by short-term fluctuations.
The real logic goes deeper—why are central banks buying gold so desperately?
In 2025, the net gold purchases by global central banks will exceed 1,200 tons, surpassing 1,000 tons for four consecutive years.
This is not a coincidence; it’s a silent de-dollarization movement.

What are the central banks doing?
According to the World Gold Council survey, 76% of central banks plan to increase their gold holdings over the next five years, while expecting the dollar reserves to decline.
See, this is a long-term structural shift, not short-term speculation.
When central banks worldwide are betting on gold, the bottom of gold prices will keep rising.

Will gold prices fall again?
Of course, they will.
I’ve seen a 10-15% correction in 2025, and a sharp 18% adjustment earlier this year.
Volatility is normal, even healthy.
But each correction is an opportunity for central banks and institutional investors to buy cheap.
That’s why experienced traders say, “Corrections are buying opportunities.”

The current position of gold prices is actually quite interesting.
Nominally, it has already broken the all-time high, but after adjusting for inflation, there’s still plenty of room below the 1980 peak.
This means that even if it drops another 10-20%, it may not be a bad thing from a long-term perspective.

But I have to be honest, there are several risks to watch out for.
First, if the Fed’s rate cut pace accelerates faster than expected, it will further support gold prices;
but if the economy unexpectedly remains strong and policy turns hawkish, gold could face greater pressure.
Second, once the dollar strengthens, it will have a clear suppressive effect on gold.
Third, if the stock market experiences a significant correction, it could trigger a liquidity crisis in the short term, which might actually push gold prices down.

Based on institutional forecasts, the consensus for 2026 is as follows:
Average price between $4,800 and $5,200, with a year-end target of $5,400-$5,800, and an optimistic scenario of $6,000-$6,500.
Goldman Sachs has raised its target to $5,700, while JPMorgan is more aggressive, calling for $6,300.
But all these forecasts rely on certain assumptions—central banks continuing to buy, geopolitical risks not receding, and the Fed cutting rates as expected.
If any of these assumptions break down, gold prices will face tests.

Will gold prices fall again?
My judgment is that, in the short term, there will definitely be downward pressure, especially when U.S. economic data is strong or Fed policy expectations shift.
But from a medium-term perspective, as long as the fundamental issues—global debt pressure, geopolitical tensions, and doubts about dollar credit—do not improve, the long-term upward trend of gold will not change.

My advice for retail investors is this: don’t try to precisely catch the bottom.
If you are a short-term trader, you can look for opportunities during the volatility around U.S. market data releases, but be sure to set strict stop-losses.
If you are a beginner, start with small amounts to test the waters—don’t go all-in right away.
If you are a long-term investor, the fact that gold prices might fall again is actually good news—meaning you have more chances to build positions at lower prices.

Finally, a reminder: gold’s annual average volatility is 19.4%, which is not lower than stocks.
Its cycle is very long—you might buy and wait ten years to see real gains, but in the meantime, you could also experience doubling or halving.
If you trade with leverage, volatility amplifies, and so do risks.

Go with the trend, understand your position clearly, and then decide how to participate.
Rather than guessing whether gold will fall again, it’s better to establish a system to monitor central bank actions, economic data, and geopolitical developments.
These are the real forces that determine the direction of gold prices.