#Polymarket每日热点

In the current long-short game of HYPE, Loracle, this giant whale, is more like a "conspicuous sacrifice." In the short term, he is likely to become the "fuel" for a short-term price surge, but in the medium to long term, it plants the hidden danger of a pullback.

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🐋 1. Loracle's giant whale operation logic: bait or sacrifice?

1. Operation overview and dilemma

Initially (April), Loracle was a large long holder, then reversed to short, with positions continuously expanding:

Dimension Key Data
Total short positions Nominal value about $143 million
Latest orders Placed at $64 with $75 million short
Average holding price About $42.5 (passively averaged from initial $41)
Current unrealized loss Estimated at $31-32 million
Partial liquidation price About $89 (after multiple margin calls pushing it higher)

Data from all sides show that Loracle has added margin by depositing and selling about 616k HYPE tokens. This indicates he is not gambling all at once but has fallen into a "losses breed stubbornness" forced position increase, having long since shifted from active shorting to "passive averaging."

2. The dual impact on the price

Loracle's publicly held short positions exert two completely opposite forces on the market:

· Short-term short squeeze acceleration: The market forms a strong "whale hunting" consensus. When all eyes focus on this obvious short seller's demise, the price will be forcibly pushed up to his liquidation level, creating a "price rise → hitting short liquidation → shorts forced to buy to close → price continues to rise" cycle, a typical "death spiral." Loracle himself becomes free fuel for the entire market to push the price up.
· Medium-term hidden risk: Once Loracle is forced to close or completely liquidate, the core emotional fuel driving the market will be instantly exhausted. At this point, major players may use the last short squeeze to distribute at high levels. Once liquidity dries up, the market will face a sharp and rapid correction.

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📊 2. Price forecast at the end of May: wide-range oscillation, "surge ↔ pullback" scenario analysis

Based on mainstream views, the HYPE price at the end of May is likely to show a wide-range oscillation pattern of "initial surge, then pullback," ultimately failing to hold the extreme high points reached during the surge.

Price path scenarios and core ranges

· Main range (60-75 USD): quick pullback after surge
· Scenario description: HYPE may attempt to reach 68-75 USD, even briefly spike through. Most opinions believe the short squeeze will push the price up to test 68-75 USD but then sharply fall back.
· Key variables: whether longs continue to hunt the whale; whether ETF and other structural funds remain stable.
· Most probable closing price at month-end: around 63-68 USD, with 64-66 USD as a strong consensus delivery zone.
· Aggressive bullish scenario (up to 80 USD+): If Loracle's $89 liquidation price is seen as a target by longs, and institutions (ETF + repurchase) continue strong buying, the price may spike briefly above 80 USD.
· Sharp correction scenario (down to 55 USD or below): Once the whale exits and buying dries up, the price may fall back by 20% or more after the surge, with initial support around 58-60 USD; if broken, near 55 USD.

Core bullish and bearish forces influencing the end-of-May price

Bullish engine

· Protocol repurchase engine (most critical force): The key driver is not ETF but Hyperliquid's passive repurchase mechanism. The protocol will use over $1.16 billion in accumulated fees, with 97-99% directly used to buy back HYPE on the open market. Besides the protocol fund, PURR (HYPE's Nasdaq-listed treasury) and USDC reserve yields are also structural buyers.
· Continuous institutional inflow: On May 12, the spot HYPE ETF launched, with Bitwise/Grayscale/21Shares continuously increasing holdings, net assets surpassing $81 million in 9 days.
· Ecosystem fundamentals and RWA expansion: Total locked-up value exceeds $5 billion, 24h perpetual contract trading volume up 47%. On-chain pre-IPO products (like SpaceX) contribute about 27% of new open interest, attracting external capital.
· Sentiment: A consensus narrative has formed across the network: "Long HYPE = Catching whales," creating a market community aligned in hunting large shorts.

Bearish pressure

· Whale short positions themselves suppress: The $65-70 range faces persistent selling pressure and psychological resistance. Everyone knows Loracle has a $75 million short order at $64; repeated failures to break through can trigger long liquidation cascades.
· Token unlock selling pressure: About 14 million HYPE (including roughly 6.6 million internal staff shares) will unlock on May 29. At current prices, potential sell pressure could reach up to $500 million.
· Emotional reversal risk: Once the short squeeze ends, market sentiment can quickly shift from frenzy to panic selling.

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💡 3. General investor strategy advice

1. Is the most dangerous point "getting in midway" or "taking the last handoff"?
For ordinary investors, the current game far exceeds fundamental analysis. At this point, blindly chasing longs or shorts is extremely risky; your counterparties are likely well-positioned institutions or protocol buyback funds. The market has entered a "death match" between bulls and bears.
2. Feasible operational ideas:
· Existing longs: As month-end approaches, taking profits gradually is safer than greedily holding. Especially when the price rapidly rises above $70, consider reducing leverage or positions step by step.
· FOMO traders: Do not recommend heavy long positions, nor blindly short because the price looks "too high." Entering now risks becoming the main force's "buy order."
· Best strategy might be "watch from the sidelines" rather than "join the fight": For leveraged traders, it’s advisable to observe more and act less. Watch the token unlock on May 29, and wait until whale positions clarify or market sentiment fully releases before engaging in right-side trading.
· Core to protecting profits: set moving stop-loss orders, even more important than predicting specific price points. In a sentiment-driven market, never forget that the last person to take the handoff often suffers more than the liquidated.