I noticed that gold started 2026 with insane strength - reaching $5,600 in January, a level we've never seen before. But the story doesn't end here.

What happened afterward was somewhat normal - a sharp correction in March, then relative stability in April around $4,700-$4,800. This tells you that the market is still seriously considering gold, but with more caution.

The real question: Will gold rise from here? The answer is complicated. The main drivers are still in place - central banks are buying, safe-haven demand is strong, and geopolitical tensions haven't disappeared. But a strong dollar and high interest rates are pushing in the opposite direction.

Major institutions have significantly raised their forecasts. JPMorgan expects $6,300 by year's end, UBS raised its target to $6,200, and even Deutsche Bank sees $6,000. These numbers are not random - there is logic behind them.

But here comes the important part: Will gold rise smoothly? Low probability. Expectations for U.S. interest rates and Federal Reserve decisions will be decisive. Any new tightening could halt the rally.

In the first quarter of 2025, gold started around $3,000 and ended the year with gains of nearly 70%. This means that the precious metal proved its value as a real wealth preservation tool, especially with inflation returning to 3.3% last March.

Inflation is the key here. The higher it remains, the more attractive gold stays. Investors understand that money in banks loses value, so they flow into precious metals.

When I look at the data, I see that the average Reuters forecast from 30 analysts reached $4,746 - the highest average since 2012. This says one thing: the market is seriously optimistic.

But caution is necessary. Volatility is inevitable. March gave us a lesson - gold lost 11.8% in one month. This means that those entering now should be prepared to ride the waves.

Summary: Will gold rise? The indicators say yes, but in a volatile manner. The main scenario points to gradual continued growth, with a chance of testing higher levels in the second half of the year. But all of this depends on central bank decisions and geopolitical developments.

If you're thinking of entering, don't expect a straight-up rise. Instead, focus on the long term and capital preservation. Gold remains the best option in an uncertain environment.