Lately, the aluminum market movements have been quite interesting. Since 2026, the global supply and demand structure has been significantly reshaped, especially with supply-side restrictions being more severe than expected.

Aluminum is a metal that is used very widely around us. From airplanes to cars, construction materials, and even kitchenware, it’s indispensable when making things. It’s lightweight, durable, and recyclable. However, how the price of this metal will move in the future is crucial, as various variables are interacting complexly.

First, on the supply side, China is tightening environmental regulations, restricting production. Global inventory levels remain low, making a full recovery unlikely. Additionally, geopolitical factors such as U.S. tariffs on Chinese products and the Russia-Ukraine war further add to the supply pressure.

What about demand? Eco-friendly industries like electric vehicles, renewable energy, and power infrastructure are structurally growing, maintaining solid aluminum demand. The construction, automotive, and aerospace industries are also showing signs of recovery.

Looking at price forecasts, as of mid-January, the price of aluminum was around $3,196 per kilogram. There haven’t been major fluctuations since the beginning of the year, but the bottom seems to be gradually rising. While research institutions have differing opinions, ING expects an average of about $2,900 throughout the year, and Goldman Sachs predicts it could adjust down to $2,350 in the second half. However, considering the current price close to $3,200, a drastic decline seems unlikely. There’s also a good chance that aluminum’s price per kilogram could stay higher than expected.

In such an uncertain market, how can one respond? There is a trading method called CFD, which involves settling only the price difference without actually buying or selling the physical commodity. The advantage is that you can profit both in rising and falling markets. If you think aluminum prices will go up, you take a long position; if you think they will go down, you take a short position.

Another attractive feature of CFDs is leverage. You can trade larger amounts than your capital allows, increasing efficiency. For example, if aluminum is priced at $3,200 per kilogram and you lack sufficient funds, you can use leverage to open a bigger position. Of course, this also increases the risk of losses, so caution is necessary.

Ultimately, the aluminum market is likely to remain bullish in the medium term due to the combination of supply shortages and strong demand. However, when trading, it’s important to keep up with the latest news and to accurately interpret price movements through technical and fundamental analysis. Especially, monitoring the real-time price movements of aluminum per kilogram and responding swiftly to trend changes are key to making profits.