I've been observing how the Ibex 35 moves for a while, and honestly, this week has been quite intense. If you want to know what to expect in the coming weeks, I’ll tell you what's happening and how this short-term stock market forecast could evolve.

This week, the Spanish benchmark has been jumping back and forth. On Monday, it rose 0.75% to 17,755 points, but on Tuesday, there was a correction due to fixed income pressure and international tensions. The interesting part was Wednesday, when the Ibex jumped 2.16% and broke the 18,000-point barrier, closing at 18,051.69. Right now, it has a weekly gain of 2.32% and has touched highs of 18,125.90 points. That’s not at all negligible.

What’s driving the movement is quite clear. Brent crude oil remains above $105-$110, creating a double effect. On one hand, it benefits Repsol and its extraction margins, but on the other hand, it pressures airlines like IAG and companies like Inditex because their operating costs increase. It’s like a silent tax on consumption and tourism.

Regarding sectors, energy was the main protagonist. Naturgy and Endesa attracted investment seeking dividend yields and protection against volatility. Banking showed mixed behavior: Santander and BBVA benefited from high interest rates, but CaixaBank and Sabadell suffered corrections due to profit-taking. And then there’s the tech sector, which really propelled the index on Wednesday. Indra and Cellnex led the rally.

Now, about the short-term stock market forecast, the most likely scenario is a volatile consolidation. If the Ibex stays above 18,000 points, it could aim for targets around 18,250. But I wouldn’t rule out a technical correction that brings it back to 17,650-17,750 to clear indicators like MACD and RSI.

There are three things to watch very closely. First, bonds: if debt yields keep rising, pressure on stocks will increase. The US T-Note is already near 5%, and the German Bund is also at highs. Second, the Middle East: any movement that significantly moves Brent below $105 or above $115 will change the game. And third, corporate moves: CaixaBank and Santander’s buyback programs, along with ex-dividend effects, will continue influencing the technical dynamics.

The short-term stock market outlook will depend heavily on how these tensions resolve. If geopolitics calms down a bit and bonds stabilize, the Ibex could consolidate gains and seek new highs. But if something goes wrong, we’ll see quick corrections. That’s why it’s important to stay alert to these fronts.