I look at whether the project team is working seriously, and the most direct indicator is how the treasury funds are spent: not big words like "hiring more people and doing marketing," but whether the expenditure pace matches the milestones. For example, first develop the core features/security audits, then gradually increase the budget; if the milestones are repeatedly delayed, but the treasury keeps spending on KOLs, events, exchange relationships... Basically, it's borrowing from the future to spend now.

The recent collapse of blockchain games is also quite textbook: inflation persists, studios immediately turn into selling pressure machines, and once the coin price spirals, project teams can only intensify subsidies and token issuance, making the treasury more and more empty. Anyway, my current approach is: I prefer to keep my position smaller, and wait until I see the closed loop of "spending → delivery → data improvement" start running before considering adding a bit more.