Over the past two days, I’ve seen people cite “evidence” from stablecoin supply and ETF subscription data as if it proves prices are bound to go up… To put it simply, correlation doesn’t equal causation. Money flowing in doesn’t mean it will immediately be used to buy coins—it could be market making, hedging, or positioning for other opportunities, or even just moving to a different place to sit there. And then there’s on-chain stuff like large transfers—when exchange hot and cold wallets show even a little movement, it gets interpreted as “smart money at work.” The more I’ve seen that, the more numb I feel: a lot of it is just internal rebalancing, changing addresses, and consolidating. It’s not necessarily taking a directional bet.

What I care about more now is whether I’ve actually checked my signatures clearly, whether the authorizations should be revoked, and not to keep too much in hot wallets. I don’t know how the market will move. Either way, I’ll first handle the details I can control—so I don’t get dragged along by the narrative into impulsively placing orders.