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I just remembered something I need to tell everyone - if you want to understand how stock prices or any asset moves, you need to understand what demand is and how supply functions in the market.
It seems like the market is all over the place, but actually, everything comes down to one basic thing - the desire to buy versus the desire to sell. That's it, nothing complicated.
Let's start with the basics: demand is people's desire to buy. When prices go down, people want to buy more. When prices go up, demand shrinks. That's the fundamental rule. As for supply, it's the opposite side - sellers are willing to sell more when prices are high, and less when prices are low.
So where does the actual price in the market come from? At the equilibrium point - where the demand curve intersects with the supply curve. That's where price and volume stabilize. If the price goes higher than that, sellers outnumber buyers, causing the price to fall back. If the price drops below, buyers outnumber sellers, pushing the price back up.
Here's an interesting point - demand isn't just determined by price, but also by many factors, such as consumers' income, confidence, news, government policies, and even unexpected events like wars in the Middle East. All of these influence demand, which in turn affects prices.
Let's look at a real example. Last year, the Strait of Hormuz was closed. About 20% of the world's oil suddenly disappeared. Supply sharply decreased, but demand remained the same. The result? Oil prices skyrocketed — that’s a supply shock.
In the stock market, it’s similar. Stocks are commodities too. Demand is how many people want to buy. Supply is how many shares are available to sell. When a company has good news, more people want to buy, demand increases, and prices go up. When there’s bad news, people want to sell, supply increases, and prices go down.
Regarding technical analysis, traders use tools like candlesticks, support and resistance levels, and trend lines to observe whether demand and supply are balanced. A large green candlestick indicates strong demand; a large red candlestick indicates strong supply.
There's a technique called the Demand Supply Zone, which helps see how unbalanced the price is. When there's a sharp drop and the price starts to stabilize, that’s an opportunity. If demand comes back strong, the price will bounce back up. If supply remains strong, the price will continue to fall.
In reality, demand is the key to everything. Understand it, and you understand the market. No need to get caught up in complicated stuff. Just observe what people want to buy and how much they can sell; the price will tell you everything.