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The recent market volatility has been quite intense, with the top three index futures all rising today. Tech stocks like NVIDIA and Tesla led the gains, which looks promising. NVIDIA's new earnings report exceeded expectations, and they increased buybacks and dividends, which is why the stock price has momentum.
However, there's an important data release tonight—U.S. PMI manufacturing data at 21:45. The market expects it to be 54. This U.S. PMI data is quite critical; if it exceeds expectations, it indicates a strong economy, and the dollar may rise accordingly. If it falls short, the dollar could be hit. As of now, the dollar index has gained a little, standing at 99.16.
Additionally, energy markets are showing some changes today. Trump said that U.S.-Iran negotiations are in the final stage, and the market is starting to anticipate the possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Once this news broke, crude oil prices retreated. WTI crude fell 0.85% to $98.23, and Brent crude also dropped 0.28%. Both declined sharply by 5% yesterday and continued downward today.
Gold is also quite interesting. It surged to $4,570 in the morning but later pulled back to around $4,537. Analysts say inflation expectations, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and a strengthening dollar are putting pressure on gold prices. These factors may continue to influence gold in the short term.
The most eye-catching news is that OpenAI is reportedly planning an IPO. It’s said that they might submit the prospectus secretly as early as this week, aiming to go public this fall. SoftBank Group's stock in Tokyo surged 20% on this news, and the Nikkei 225 also rose by 3.1%. It seems the market's enthusiasm for AI concepts remains very high.
Overall, today’s U.S. PMI data will be a turning point. Everyone is waiting to see how the economy will perform, which could influence the future performance of the dollar and other assets.