Recently, many people have been asking whether they should sell gold now. Honestly, this is a good question because it directly points to the most confusing moment right now.

Let me start with the conclusion: Is it profitable to sell gold now? It depends on your holding costs and market expectations.

First, let's clarify the situation. The recent rally in gold appears, on the surface, to be due to a combination of rate cuts, inflation, and geopolitical risks, but what I observe as a deeper logic is—long-term skepticism from global central banks toward the U.S. dollar system. Since 2022, central banks have not truly stopped buying gold; last year, global central bank net purchases exceeded 1,200 tons, marking the fourth consecutive year of over 1,000 tons. This is not short-term speculation but a structural shift in asset allocation.

Even more interestingly, according to a survey by the World Gold Council, 76% of central banks believe they will increase their gold reserves over the next five years, while also expecting the proportion of U.S. dollar reserves to decline. What does this mean? It indicates that the bottom of gold prices is being continuously raised, with limited downside in a bear market.

But here’s a key point—gold’s rally has never been a straight line. Earlier this year, due to a rebound in real interest rates, gold prices experienced a sharp correction of 18%, with high volatility. So, is it profitable to sell gold now? It depends on how you view the upcoming market trend.

From institutional forecasts, the target price range by the end of 2026 is between $5,400 and $5,800, with an optimistic scenario reaching $6,000 to $6,500. Major banks like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are raising their expectations, citing ongoing central bank purchases, Fed rate cut expectations, and safe-haven demand. But at the same time, if economic growth accelerates and the dollar strengthens, gold prices could also fall back. So, 2026 looks more like a high-level oscillation with an upward bias rather than a one-way, unstoppable rally.

Is it profitable to sell gold now? My view depends on the situation:

If you are a short-term trader, the current volatility actually offers many opportunities. Fluctuations around U.S. market data releases are significantly amplified, making technical analysis easier to determine direction. Setting a 1-2% stop-loss and riding the wave is feasible. But don’t chase highs—be disciplined.

If you are a long-term holder, you don’t necessarily need to rush to sell now. Gold remains a diversification tool in your portfolio, and the long-term logic is still there—sticky inflation, debt pressures, geopolitical tensions haven’t been resolved. But be mentally prepared for a potential retracement of over 20%, which is normal market volatility.

If you have already made substantial profits, is it profitable to sell gold now? That depends on your confidence in the future market. Some choose to sell in batches to lock in gains while keeping core positions for higher targets. This is a pragmatic approach.

One last reminder: gold’s annual average volatility is 19.4%, which is higher than the S&P 500. Frequent trading can eat up a lot of profits. Instead of obsessing over whether to sell now, it’s better to clarify your positioning—are you a short-term trader, a long-term investor, or a swing trader? Different roles require different decisions. Follow the trend, systematically monitor market signals, and rely less on blindly following news.