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๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ โ ๏ธ
US inflation pressures are showing that the fight may be far from over.
The latest data reveals something important:
๐ถ US PCE inflation has surged +28.5% since February 2018
๐ถ If inflation had followed the Fed's long-term 2% target path, prices would have risen only +17.4%
๐ถ Current inflation path overshot the target by +11.1 percentage points
๐ถ The divergence accelerated heavily after 2021 as massive stimulus, ultra-low interest rates, and post-pandemic liquidity entered the system
๐ถ PCE inflation has now remained above the Fed's 2% target for around 60 consecutive months
๐ถ Latest reading reached 3.5%, the highest level since June 2023
Why does this matter?
Higher inflation doesn't only affect consumers.
It directly affects:
๐ Rate-cut expectations
๐ Bond yields
๐ Equity valuations
๐ Liquidity conditions
๐ Risk assets including $BTC
The market spent months expecting easier monetary policy.
But sticky inflation creates a different possibility:
๐ Higher rates for longer.
And historically, tighter liquidity conditions are not the environment risk assets enjoy the most.
๐๐ซ๐๐๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ญ๐ฌ ๐๐๐ซ๐๐ข๐๐ญ:
The question is no longer:
"Did inflation peak?"
The bigger question now is:
"Is inflation becoming structurally sticky again?" ๐
$BTC โ