Recently, I saw someone again taking the increase in stablecoin supply as solid evidence that "off-chain funds are coming in," and then adding an ETF inflow to start speculating about the market... To put it simply, correlation does not equal causation; often, people are just looking for explanations at the same time. The increase in stablecoins could also be for market making, hedging, arbitrage, or stocking up, and who really knows if they are buying spot or not. On-chain data tools and tagging systems are also criticized for being lagging and can be misleading. I now prefer to treat them as an emotional thermometer, not as a navigation guide. Anyway, my process remains the same: take screenshots, make notes, authorize withdrawals at the right time, and slowly pick up the pieces when the tide recedes.