U.S. stocks are closed all day for Memorial Day, and market liquidity has significantly shrunk. It will be difficult to see a major unilateral trend tonight, and all volatility is basically the result of existing funds competing. The true directional choice will appear after the futures market opens tomorrow morning, which is the key time window we need to focus on.

Overall Trading Strategy

Currently, the main approach is still to go short from high levels. Short-term rebounds should be strictly controlled in terms of position size. The market could turn downward at any time, and declines are often rapid and deep, so chasing longs easily leads to stop-loss hits.

From a fundamental perspective, with multiple negative factors stacking up, the probability of the market starting a new rally is very low. But we must stay highly alert to substantive progress in the U.S.-Iran negotiations—currently, both sides have reached a framework agreement in principle. If officially signed within the next 3-5 days, it will greatly ease geopolitical risks and could trigger a rebound in the market.

Key Levels and Trading Plan

Resistance Levels

• Super strong resistance zone: Bitcoin $80,500, Ethereum $2,325

• Medium-term strong resistance zone: Bitcoin $79,300, Ethereum $2,178

Trading Strategy: Whichever resistance level is reached first, establish long-term short positions at that level, with a stop-loss set 3% above the resistance.

Current Range

Bitcoin $77,850, Ethereum $2,135 are the current important oscillation upper boundaries. Only a confirmed breakout of this range could lead to testing higher resistance levels; if unable to break through, Bitcoin will continue to test lower support levels.

Short-term Opportunities

On smaller timeframes, try light long positions on dips, but exit quickly after profits are realized. Do not be greedy and hold on.

Risk Warning

1. Liquidity tonight is poor, prone to spike moves; avoid heavy positions.

2. Keep close watch on the latest news of the U.S.-Iran negotiations; any sudden development could cause sharp market volatility.

3. All orders must have stop-losses in place, and trading discipline must be strictly followed.