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Investment Banks: Since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict, UK interest rate expectations have seen the largest increase among G10 countries.
Data shows that since February 27th, the market's net upward revision of the Bank of England's interest rate expectations has reached 106 basis points.
In comparison, during the same period, the US interest rate expectations increased by 78 basis points, the Eurozone by 69 basis points, and Norway by 70 basis points.
LSEG data indicates that the UK money market has fully priced in an expectation of a 48 basis point rate hike by 2026.
Before the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict, the market's expectation was at least two rate cuts within the year.