I just reviewed how the IBEX 35 moved this week, and the volatility has been quite noticeable. The index had a slow start on Monday with +0.75%, but Wednesday was when something interesting happened: a strong surge of 2.16% that broke the 18,000-point barrier. Right now, it’s hovering around 18,125 points with a weekly gain of 2.32%.

What caught my attention the most was how the sectors performed. Energy was the main driver, with Brent staying above $110. Repsol, Naturgy, and Endesa were the biggest movers upward thanks to those improved margins. In contrast, stocks like IAG and Amadeus faced pressure due to higher fuel costs. The banking sector showed mixed movements: Santander and BBVA rose initially due to higher yields, but then caution set in.

For short-term stock market predictions, I see two clear scenarios. If the IBEX maintains 18,000 as support, it could target 18,250 points. But I don’t rule out a technical correction that could bring it back to 17,650–17,750, simply to clear out indicators. What needs to be watched is crude oil prices and how U.S. bonds are moving, because they are exerting real pressure on valuations.

Analysts say that if Brent drops below $105 or rises above $115, everything changes. Also, attention should be paid to share buyback programs in companies like CaixaBank and Santander. Personally, I believe short-term stock market forecasts point to more volatile consolidation rather than a clear directional move. Geopolitics and energy inflation remain the key factors.