‍#TradFi交易分享挑战

Last Week’s Bitcoin Market Summary and This Week’s Outlook

1. Market Review

BTC overall last week followed a pattern of “sharp sell-off followed by repair.” At the start of the week, it continued the downtrend from the $82,000 area in mid-May. On May 18, a large single-day drop occurred: it opened at $77,619 and fell all the way to $75,546 to close. The intraday low touched $75,364, down nearly 2.7%, marking the biggest single-day decline last week. Then on May 19, the price once dipped to the weekly low of $74,291 before rebounding quickly, closing at $76,749 and forming a clear V-shaped reversal. On May 20, it kept rising to $77,063. On May 21, it traded with slight fluctuations around about $77,100. Looking at the whole week, BTC fell from around $77,600 to a low of $74,291 and then rebounded back into the $77,000 range. The weekly decline was about 0.2%. The drop was not large, but volatility was intense—the intraday swing during the week exceeded 4.5%.

2. Fundamental Analysis

On the macro level, several important events took place last week: Kevin Warsh was officially sworn in as Chair of the Federal Reserve. The market generally expected that there would be no rate cuts in 2026 and that there might even be rate hikes (the CME FedWatch shows a 67% probability that traders expect a 25bps hike by year-end). This is a headwind for risk assets. However, the SEC approved Nasdaq’s listing of cash-settled BTC index options on the Philadelphia Stock Exchange, opening a new channel for institutional participation. Spot BTC ETFs recorded net outflows for six consecutive trading days totaling more than $1.26 billion. Santiment interpreted this as a contrarian “buy signal.” Michael Saylor publicly stated for the first time that Strategy this year “selling some BTC is not impossible,” breaking his long-standing “never sell” position and raising concerns in the market that the largest BTC holder may sell.

3. Technical Indicator Analysis

On the daily timeframe, ADX is only 15.9, indicating weak trend strength. DI+ and DI- are close (23.7 vs 22.3), so direction is unclear. The MA lines are arranged in a bearish pattern, with EMA200 standing significantly above the current price at $77,380, showing clear suppression across the medium- and long-term. CCI is -81.5, in a bearish zone, suggesting that daily momentum still leans downward. The daily SAR is at $78,574, far above the current price of $77,100—this is a classic bearish signal. Price needs to break above $78,574 in order to reverse the SAR direction.

On the 4-hour timeframe, ADX rises to 26.2, indicating a moderately strong trend. CCI+24.4 is neutral to bullish. SAR is at $74,826, and price is trading above the SAR, meaning the short-term support is effective. On the 1-hour timeframe, ADX is only 10.5, indicating an extremely weak trend. The KDJ J-value reaches 89.86, which is relatively high and suggests a potential short-term pullback from overbought conditions. RSI is around 54.6, staying in a neutral range, and WR at -31.6 is also relatively neutral.

4. Key Levels

Support Levels:

$74,291 — Last week’s low. This is the starting point of the V-shaped reversal on May 19 and is also in the area near the 4-hour SAR at $74,826. If this level is broken, downside room opens toward the $72,000–$73,000 range (the area of the late-March lows).

$76,260 — The 1-hour Bollinger lower band, the bottom boundary of short-term narrow-range consolidation. This week saw multiple supports around the $76,000–$76,100 area, including the May 20 low of $76,098.

Resistance Levels:

$77,384 — The 1-hour Bollinger upper band, also near the dense trading area around the May 20 high of $77,514. A breakout above this level is needed to confirm an upside move in the short term.

$78,574 — The daily SAR level. This is the most critical daily resistance. Price must stay above $78,500 to change the daily bearish structure; otherwise, every approach to this zone could face selling pressure.

5. This Week’s Outlook

From a technical perspective, BTC is currently ranging in a narrow band of $76,000–$77,500. The Bollinger Bands tightening suggests that a directional breakout is likely approaching. The daily structure remains bearish (bearish MA arrangement, SAR above price), but the 4-hour and shorter timeframes have shown stabilization signals (4-hour SAR support is holding, and price rebounded from $74,291 back to the $77,000 area). Possible scenarios this week are:

Scenario 1 (bullish bias, probability around 35%): If ETF funds switch back to net inflows, Warsh releases dovish signals, or geopolitical tensions ease, BTC may break above the $77,500 Bollinger upper band and target $78,500–$79,000. The key is whether it can hold above the daily SAR at $78,574. Once it breaks through, it could open rebound room toward $80,000.

Scenario 2 (continued consolidation, probability around 40%): If macro signals remain unclear, BTC may continue ranging between $74,500–$77,500. After the Bollinger Bands tighten further, it will wait for a catalyst event. In this case, short-term trading opportunities are limited, and it is more suitable to watch from the sidelines.

Scenario 3 (bearish bias, probability around 25%): If ETF outflows accelerate, Saylor starts selling, or expectations for rate hikes heat up, BTC may test the $74,291 support again and even break down toward $72,000–$73,000. Daily CCI is already in a bearish zone; if it breaks below the $76,260 Bollinger lower band, selling pressure could accelerate downward.

6. Trading Recommendations

From a short-term perspective, during the Bollinger Bands tightening phase, it is not recommended to take a heavy position to bet on direction. It is better to stay cautious and wait for a breakout signal. If BTC breaks above $77,500 and holds, consider taking a low-risk long position with a target of $78,500 and a stop-loss at $76,000. If it breaks below $76,000, the Bollinger lower band, then consider shorting, with the downside support at $74,291.

From a medium-term perspective, the daily bearish structure has not changed. The daily SAR above $78,500 is the key level to confirm a reversal. Until price is above $78,500, medium-term positions should primarily favor short trades.