Recently, I've been looking into the raw materials sector and noticed some logical shifts.

In the past, we judged raw material prices based on the global manufacturing outlook—when the economy was strong, demand increased and prices rose; the opposite was true. But now, that's different. Structural factors like AI data centers, electric vehicles, grid upgrades, and nuclear energy revival are fundamentally changing the demand patterns for commodities like copper, uranium, and gold.

Let's start with copper. There's now a saying that it's the "new oil of the AI era." A large AI data center consumes as much power as a small city, with servers, power distribution, cooling systems, and fiber optics connecting data centers—all requiring大量的銅. Plus, the copper used in electric vehicles is 3 to 4 times that of fuel-powered cars. Upgrades to power grids and energy storage systems mean that demand for copper is essentially structurally increasing. More critically, miners are warning of a long-term supply gap for copper; new mines take an average of 7 to 10 years from discovery to production, and existing mines are declining in grade.

I checked reports from major copper miners like FCX and BHP, and found they are all cautious with expansion plans. FCX, due to an incident at an Indonesian mine, has lowered its copper production forecast for 2026, but CICC still raised its target price to $64.40, citing expected recovery in production in the second half of the year. These short-term fluctuations are actually opportunities for investors bullish on copper's long-term trend.

Gold and silver are also interesting. The traditional logic is as hedges against risk and inflation, but silver now has additional structural bullish factors—it's indispensable in solar panels, electric vehicles, and AI server welding. Silver supply mainly comes from lead-zinc mines as a byproduct, with no flexibility for independent silver mine expansion. Central banks worldwide continue to buy gold to address long-term debt and currency system issues. As the world's largest gold miner, Newmont expects gold production in 2026 to be about 5.26 million ounces, with a sustaining cost of around $1,680 per ounce. The long-term bullish outlook for gold prices substantially benefits its profit margins.

The most intriguing is nuclear energy. Microsoft has signed a deal with Constellation to restart the Three Mile Island nuclear plant, and Google and Amazon are investing in small modular reactors. The base load power demand from AI data centers is bringing nuclear energy back into policy discussions. While spot prices for uranium fluctuate, long-term contract prices are rising. Companies like Cameco and NexGen Energy are worth watching.

There’s a contradiction in oil and natural gas—on one hand, talking about energy transition; on the other, AI and global electricity demand are surging, making natural gas important again. U.S. LNG exports hit new highs, but crude oil supply remains controlled by OPEC+. ExxonMobil estimates that from 2026 to 2030, they will invest $28 to $33 billion annually to increase natural gas production and reduce oil costs. This oil giant’s transition path is quite clear.

Rare earths and critical minerals are another dimension. AI and military supply chains heavily depend on rare earths, with China controlling about 70% of global mining and 90% of refining and separation capacity. The U.S., Australia, and Canada are accelerating efforts to build independent supply chains, but short-term, China’s position remains unshaken, leading to high volatility in rare earth stocks.

If you want to invest in raw materials concept stocks, my advice is to first understand your trading rhythm. ETFs help avoid risks from individual miners due to strikes or cost overruns. Individual stocks tend to be much more volatile—if copper prices rise 10%, FCX might go up 15-20%, but the same applies to declines.

Real opportunities often come from trend swings, geopolitical events, or price breakthroughs. Raw materials markets are volatile, with high leverage and frequent capital inflows and outflows. Once the bullish momentum weakens, a sell-off can be fierce. My trading principle is to keep individual raw material stocks within 5% of total capital and set fixed stop-losses for each trade.

To track the trend of raw material concept stocks, focus on several indicators. On the demand side, watch China’s infrastructure investment policies; on the supply side, monitor environmental regulations, mine accidents, and OPEC policies. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) can predict price fluctuations in logistics. Geopolitical tariffs and trade policies also directly impact imports and exports. Interest rates mainly influence gold, while central bank QE policies and de-dollarization trends provide long-term support for gold demand.

In today’s market environment, raw materials have shifted from simple cyclical indicators to structural growth investment themes. If you're interested in this sector, you can start with ETFs like COPX (global copper miners), URA (uranium miners), and LIT (lithium miners)—these are more direct ways to participate in structural demand. Once familiar with the rhythm, consider individual stocks.